- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace
- •Policies have major influences on the development of electric mobility
- •Technology advances are delivering substantial cost reductions for batteries
- •Strategic importance of the battery technology value chain is increasingly recognised
- •Other technology developments are contributing to cost cuts
- •Private sector response confirms escalating momentum for electric mobility
- •Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
- •Electric cars save more energy than they use
- •Electric mobility increases demand for raw materials
- •Managing change in the material supply chain
- •Safeguarding government revenue from transport taxation
- •New mobility modes have challenges and offer opportunities
- •References
- •Introduction
- •Electric Vehicles Initiative
- •EV 30@30 Campaign
- •Global EV Pilot City Programme
- •Scope, content and structure of the report
- •1. Status of electric mobility
- •Vehicle and charger deployment
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Stock
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Sales and market share
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Publicly accessible chargers
- •Small electric vehicles for urban transport
- •Stock and sales
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Low-speed electric vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Buses
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Trucks
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Other modes
- •Shipping
- •Aviation
- •Energy use and well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •Electricity demand and oil displacement
- •Well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •References
- •2. Prospects for electric mobility development
- •Electric mobility targets: Recent developments
- •Country-level targets
- •City-level targets
- •Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure
- •Charging standards
- •Hardware
- •Communication protocols
- •Supporting policies
- •Canada
- •China
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policies
- •European Union
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •India
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Japan
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •Korea
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •United States
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •Other countries
- •The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
- •Industry roll-out plans
- •Vehicles
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •References
- •3. Outlook
- •Scenario definitions
- •Electric vehicle projections
- •Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
- •Global results
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Regional insights
- •China
- •Europe
- •India
- •Japan
- •United States and Canada
- •Other countries
- •Implications for automotive batteries
- •Capacity of automotive batteries
- •Material demand for automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses
- •Publicly accessible chargers for LDVs
- •Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand
- •Electricity demand from EVs
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the New Policies Scenario
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario
- •Implications of electric mobility for GHG emissions
- •References
- •4. Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Context
- •Methodology
- •Key insights
- •Detailed assessment
- •Life-cycle GHG emissions: drivers and potential for emissions reduction
- •Effect of mileage on EV life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Effect of vehicle size and power on EV life-cycle emissions
- •Effect of power system and battery manufacturing emissions on EV life-cycle emissions
- •References
- •5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment
- •Vehicle and battery costs
- •Challenge
- •EV purchase prices are not yet competitive with ICE vehicles
- •Indications from the total cost of ownership analysis
- •Effect of recent battery cost reductions on the cost gap
- •Impacts of developments in 2018 on the total cost of ownership
- •Solutions
- •Battery cost reductions
- •Reducing EV costs with simpler and innovative design architectures
- •Adapting battery sizes to travel needs
- •Supply and value chain sustainability of battery materials
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Towards sustainable minerals sourcing via due diligence principles
- •Initiatives for better battery supply chain transparency and sustainable extractive activities
- •Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
- •Battery end-of-life management
- •Implications of electric mobility for power systems
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Potential for controlled EV charging to deliver grid services and participate in electricity markets
- •Enabling flexibility from EVs
- •Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
- •Government revenue from taxation
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Near-term options
- •Long-term solutions
- •Shared and automated mobility
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •References
- •Statistical annex
- •Electric car stock
- •New electric car sales
- •Market share of electric cars
- •Electric light commercial vehicles (LCV)
- •Electric vehicle supply equipment stock
- •References
- •Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
- •Table of contents
- •List of Figures
- •List of Boxes
- •List of Tables
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment |
EVs and platforms aggregating the supply of flexible charging capacity can enable changes in the load patterns of EVs that shift power demand away from the system demand peaks is given in Box 5.4.
Box 5.4. Fostering EV participation in electricity markets through aggregation: an example from the Netherlands
The potential for EVs to participate in electricity markets and being exposed to market prices is underway, with smart charging of EVs and platforms aggregating the supply of flexible charging capacity as a means to balance the grid in place in several countries. The figure in Box 5.4 shows an example where the charging capacity of 1 000 EV charging sessions in the Netherlands were pooled by an aggregator, Jedlix, and responded to price signals. This resulted in a significant change in the pattern of power draw to charge EVs to off-peak hours, in comparison with 1 000 charging sessions not subject to the price signals (ElaadNL and Jedlix, 2019). Relative to the average household electricity demand, smart charging shifts to hours with lower demand. On a national scale, 30-50% of charging sessions in the Netherlands occur in the evening peak hours (16:00-20:00), while cars are parked four-times longer than the required charging time, allowing for time to shift the charging sessions to off-peak times.
Regular and smart EV charging patterns from 1 000 simultaneous sessions compared with average hourly household demand in the Netherlands
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1200 |
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0.06 |
electricitydailyofFractiondemand |
Regular |
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1000 |
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0.05 |
charging |
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demandElectricity(kWh) |
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800 |
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0.04 |
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600 |
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0.03 |
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Smart |
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charging |
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400 |
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0.02 |
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200 |
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0.01 |
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0 |
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0.00 |
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Household |
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demand |
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00:00 |
01:00 |
02:00 |
03:00 |
04:00 |
05:00 |
06:00 |
07:00 |
08:00 |
09:00 |
10:00 |
11:00 |
12:00 |
13:00 |
14:00 |
15:00 |
16:00 |
17:00 |
18:00 |
19:00 |
20:00 |
21:00 |
22:00 |
23:00 |
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April/May |
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2018 |
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hour of the day |
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(Right-axis) |
Sources: ElaadNL and Jedlix (2019); NEDU (2018); Refa and Hubbers (2019).
Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
Despite the early participation of aggregated EVs in a small number of markets and smart meter deployment (a key prerequisite for DSR) that has grown rapidly in recent years, the situation is not homogeneous globally. In the majority of countries, power markets are not developed to a point that can optimally accommodate increased EV uptake, since demandside resources are only able to participate in a small number of programmes (Smart Energy Demand Coalition, 2017). Achieving large-scale flexibility from EVs around the world will require that power markets evolve. Three prerequisites must be in place to enable participation:
PAGE | 187
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Global EV Outlook 2019 |
5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment |
•First, the market must include the presence of services (e.g. grid balancing) suitable for EV participation.
•Second, the market must allow the participation of small loads through aggregators. This
includes the existence of legal frameworks that define the participation of EVs and other electrical devices into aggregated DSR.51
•Third, and perhaps most importantly, aggregators should not face high transaction costs to be able to pool large number of small loads to participate in demand response in an electricity market.
These are the three broad principles adopted by the European Union with the update of the directive on common rules for the internal market in electricity, adopted in March 2019 by the European Parliament as part of the Clean Energy for All Europeans package (European Parliament, 2019).52
Table 5.4 illustrates different levels of grid integration and links to the changes needed in the regulatory environment and electricity market reforms, outlining what they mean for EVs. Controlled single direction charging alone (level 2) is expected to unlock a major flexibility potential. Bi-directional (level 3/vehicle-to-home or level 4/vehicle-to-home) is expected to further increase the value of the flexibility services offered by EVs, as they increase the possibilities for EVs to access a wider pool of flexibility incentives.
Altogether, the opportunities offered by EVs and the potential to enhance power system flexibility to facilitate VRE integration suggests that EVs can help to accelerate the energy transition pathways that extend beyond the decarbonisation of the transport sector.
Table 5.4. Grid integration of EVs, and regulatory and market requirements
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EV grid integration |
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Description |
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Regulatory and market requirements |
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Phase where EVs are connected to the |
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EVs comply with the local requirements |
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Grid-compliant |
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and regulations. The charging power is |
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grid for their charging needs, but smart |
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below the thresholds prescribed by grid |
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charging is not yet applied. |
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operators. |
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Level 1 – Controlled |
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The charging power and timing of |
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Dynamic electricity pricing levels |
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charging can be shifted remotely by the |
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needed to incentivise charging |
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charging |
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DSO, CPO, EV user, EV or home energy |
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behaviour. |
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management system. |
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Level 2 – |
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A charging profile is negotiated based |
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Aggregators need to be authorised as |
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on various drivers (monetary drivers or |
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market players. The wholesale, |
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grid constraints), and responses are |
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balancing and capacity markets (where |
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controlled charging |
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controlled and bundled by aggregators |
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applicable) need to be open to |
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51The presence of a legal framework to define the rules that apply to electricity market that rewards flexibility is crucial to clarify aspects such as the conditions that apply to consumers that opt for dynamic electricity price and conclude aggregation contracts.
52The directive urges member states, among others, to empower energy consumers to get access to electricity markets and perform DSR activities. Demand response is seen as pivotal to enable the smart charging of EVs and thereby enable the efficient integration of EVs into electricity grids. It also urges states to enable dynamic electricity price contracts and to allow more flexibility, including an appropriate electricity market design, to accommodate an increasing share of renewable energy in the grid. Member states must also ensure that participation of DSR through aggregation is allowed and fostered, and that all customers are free to purchase and sell electricity services, including aggregation.
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