- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace
- •Policies have major influences on the development of electric mobility
- •Technology advances are delivering substantial cost reductions for batteries
- •Strategic importance of the battery technology value chain is increasingly recognised
- •Other technology developments are contributing to cost cuts
- •Private sector response confirms escalating momentum for electric mobility
- •Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
- •Electric cars save more energy than they use
- •Electric mobility increases demand for raw materials
- •Managing change in the material supply chain
- •Safeguarding government revenue from transport taxation
- •New mobility modes have challenges and offer opportunities
- •References
- •Introduction
- •Electric Vehicles Initiative
- •EV 30@30 Campaign
- •Global EV Pilot City Programme
- •Scope, content and structure of the report
- •1. Status of electric mobility
- •Vehicle and charger deployment
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Stock
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Sales and market share
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Publicly accessible chargers
- •Small electric vehicles for urban transport
- •Stock and sales
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Low-speed electric vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Buses
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Trucks
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Other modes
- •Shipping
- •Aviation
- •Energy use and well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •Electricity demand and oil displacement
- •Well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •References
- •2. Prospects for electric mobility development
- •Electric mobility targets: Recent developments
- •Country-level targets
- •City-level targets
- •Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure
- •Charging standards
- •Hardware
- •Communication protocols
- •Supporting policies
- •Canada
- •China
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policies
- •European Union
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •India
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Japan
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •Korea
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •United States
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •Other countries
- •The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
- •Industry roll-out plans
- •Vehicles
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •References
- •3. Outlook
- •Scenario definitions
- •Electric vehicle projections
- •Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
- •Global results
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Regional insights
- •China
- •Europe
- •India
- •Japan
- •United States and Canada
- •Other countries
- •Implications for automotive batteries
- •Capacity of automotive batteries
- •Material demand for automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses
- •Publicly accessible chargers for LDVs
- •Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand
- •Electricity demand from EVs
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the New Policies Scenario
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario
- •Implications of electric mobility for GHG emissions
- •References
- •4. Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Context
- •Methodology
- •Key insights
- •Detailed assessment
- •Life-cycle GHG emissions: drivers and potential for emissions reduction
- •Effect of mileage on EV life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Effect of vehicle size and power on EV life-cycle emissions
- •Effect of power system and battery manufacturing emissions on EV life-cycle emissions
- •References
- •5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment
- •Vehicle and battery costs
- •Challenge
- •EV purchase prices are not yet competitive with ICE vehicles
- •Indications from the total cost of ownership analysis
- •Effect of recent battery cost reductions on the cost gap
- •Impacts of developments in 2018 on the total cost of ownership
- •Solutions
- •Battery cost reductions
- •Reducing EV costs with simpler and innovative design architectures
- •Adapting battery sizes to travel needs
- •Supply and value chain sustainability of battery materials
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Towards sustainable minerals sourcing via due diligence principles
- •Initiatives for better battery supply chain transparency and sustainable extractive activities
- •Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
- •Battery end-of-life management
- •Implications of electric mobility for power systems
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Potential for controlled EV charging to deliver grid services and participate in electricity markets
- •Enabling flexibility from EVs
- •Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
- •Government revenue from taxation
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Near-term options
- •Long-term solutions
- •Shared and automated mobility
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •References
- •Statistical annex
- •Electric car stock
- •New electric car sales
- •Market share of electric cars
- •Electric light commercial vehicles (LCV)
- •Electric vehicle supply equipment stock
- •References
- •Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
- •Table of contents
- •List of Figures
- •List of Boxes
- •List of Tables
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
1. Status of electric mobility |
1. Status of electric mobility
Vehicle and charger deployment
Light-duty vehicles
Stock
Cars
The global stock of electric passenger cars1 reached 5.1 million units in 2018, an increase of 63% from the previous year (Figure 1.1). This is similar to the year-on-year growth rate of 57% in 2017 and 60% in 2016. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) account for 64% of the world’s electric car fleet. (Box 1. 1 provides an update on fuel cell electric vehicle stocks).2
Around 45% of the world’s electric car fleet was located in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) in 2018, compared to 39% in 2017. The stock of electric cars in China almost doubled between 2017 and 2018 to reach 2.3 million. In 2018, Europe3 accounted for 24% of the global stock of electric cars at 1.2 million (of which 0.96 million were in European Union countries) and the United States accounted for 22% with 1.1 million. By far, Norway was the global leader in terms of stock share4 in 2018, with 10% of electric cars in its total car stock. Even with the ongoing expansion of electric car sales, only five countries, including four Electric Vehicle Initiative (EVI) members, had an electric car stock share higher than 1% in 2018: Norway (10%)5, Iceland (3.3%), Netherlands (1.9%), Sweden (1.6%)6 and China (1.1%).7
1In this report, an electric car or passenger electric car refers to either a battery electric vehicle (BEV) or a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) in the passenger light-duty vehicle (PLDV) segment. It does not include hybrid electric vehicles that cannot be plugged-in (HEVs).
2This report focuses on BEVs and PHEVs. It excludes fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) unless otherwise stated.
3In this report, the following countries are included in the “Europe” category: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus*, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom. * Note by Turkey: The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Turkey recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Turkey shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.
Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Turkey. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.
4Market share is defined in this report as the share of new electric car registrations as a percentage of total new passenger light-duty car registrations, whereas stock share refers to the share of electric car stock as a percentage of total passenger light-duty car stock.
5In this analysis, EV sales and stock in Norway do not account for second-hand imported electric vehicles (20% of passenger car sales in 2018) to avoid double counting with exporting countries. This phenomenon can be explained by the high demand for EVs in Norway, which is a challenge for manufacturers to supply enough vehicles. As a result, there is a trend to import newly registered electric cars from other European countries. A number of second-hand electric vehicles from other countries are also imported in Norway because of their cheaper price relative to new vehicles.
6In 2018 in Sweden, a fraction of the electric passenger cars registered did not reach Swedish roads, due to delays in PHEV deliveries and to exports to Norway. In this report, all the vehicles registered are accounted for in the EV stock.
PAGE | 32
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
1. Status of electric mobility |
Figure 1.1. Passenger electric car stock in main markets and the top-ten EVI countries
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Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in electric vehicle. Other includes Australia, Brazil, Chile, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa and Thailand.
Electric vehicle (EV) stocks by country are calculated as the sum of EV sales starting from the earliest data available in our time series (in most cases after 2011), i.e. without considering scrappage rates at this early market stage and excluding second-hand imports, unless access to sources with direct EV stock numbers was possible.
Stock shares are calculated based on EV stock by country and, for total rolling passenger light-duty vehicle stocks per country, on estimates developed with the IEA Mobility Model. The latter are estimated based on new vehicle registration data and the use of scrappage functions that account for a lifetime range of 13-18 years. Lifetimes at the low end of the range are used for countries with higher income levels (and vice versa).
Europe includes Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus8, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom. Other includes Australia, Brazil, Chile, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa and Thailand.
Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, complemented by ACEA (2019); EAFO (2019); EV Volumes (2019); Marklines (2019); OICA (2019); CAAM (2019).
There were 5.1 million electric passenger cars on the road worldwide by the end of 2018, of which 45% were in China.
Light-commercial vehicles
In addition to the 5.1 million passenger electric cars, there were almost 250 000 electric lightcommercial vehicles (LCVs) on the road in 2018.9 Electric LCVs are often part of a company or government fleet.10 China had the largest electric LCV fleet worldwide (138 000 vehicles) in 2018, 57% of the global stock. The second-largest market for electric LCVs was Europe with 38% of the global stock and 92 000 vehicles. France (41 000 vehicles) and Germany (16 500 vehicles)
7Further details on the method used for stock share calculation are in the notes for Figure 1.1
8Note by Turkey: The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Turkey recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Turkey shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.
Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Turkey. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.
9LCV stocks in China for all years have been updated taking into account of information on the total of all commercial vehicle sales from the country submission and their distribution across LCVs, buses, minibuses, mediumand heavy-duty trucks from other sources (D1EV, 2018; Find800, 2019; EV Volumes, 2019).
10See Chapter 2, Box 2.2.
PAGE | 33
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
1. Status of electric mobility |
were the leading European countries in this regard. The vast majority of electric LCVs registered to date are BEVs (99%). This brings the number of electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) on the road worldwide in 2018 to about 5.4 million.11
Box 1. 1. Fuel cell electric vehicles – stock and refuelling infrastructure
A fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) is a type of EV that uses hydrogen, via a fuel cell, to power an electric motor. In 2018, there were 11 200 fuel cell passenger cars worldwide. This is significantly lower than the number of BEVs and PHEVs in circulation in 2018 (1 FCEV per 460 PHEVs and BEVs).
More than half of the global FCEV passenger car fleet is located in the United States (6 200 cars), mainly in the state of California. Other countries with notable FCEV passenger car deployment include Japan (26%) and Korea (8%), which in 2018 were the only countries with more than 1 FCEV per 100 BEVs and PHEVs. In Europe, the number of FCEVs in circulation at the end of 2018 was 1 400 with the highest stock in Germany and France, as in 2017.
Fuel cell electric car stock and refuelling infrastructure by country, 2018
Fuel cell electric passenger car stock 11 200 (2015: 1 000)
1% 0.5%
4%3%3%
8%
55%
26%
Hydrogen refuelling stations 381 worldwide
5% 17% United States
Japan
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Sources: Data compiled by the IEA Technology Collaboration Programme on Advanced Fuel Cells 8 (2019), complemented with IEA analysis based on country submissions.
In addition to passenger cars, fuel cells have been used in various transport applications. For example, fuel cell buses, with the largest fleet in China with more than 400 buses by end-2018 (IEA AFC TCP, 2019). Similar deployments are observed in Europe (50 buses in 2017), United States, Korea and Japan (E4tech, 2018). Fuel cell technology also equips trucks, with more than 400 in China (IEA AFC TCP, 2019), highlighting the progress and interest of China in hydrogen for medium and heavy vehicles. In addition, two hydrogen trains with an 800 km range have been put into operation in Germany.
The hydrogen used to power the engine of FCEVs is stored in dedicated tanks at pressures of 35 to 70 megapascal. The vehicle refuelling process is similar to that of a gasoline vehicle. At the end of 2018, there were 381 hydrogen refuelling stations worldwide (public and non-public).
11 LDVs include both electric LCVs and electric passenger cars.
PAGE | 34
IEA. All rights reserved.