Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
|
|
|
|
companies by September 2018). Almost half of the new charging stations are in Europe with the majority being built by E.ON, Metro AG and Vattenfall. (Details are available in the EV100 Annual Report, The Climate Group 2018).
Vehicles
Light-duty vehicles
In 2018, the dynamic developments on the policy front continued to be mirrored by announcements from automakers on their electrification strategies, even beyond what had been observed in previous years. Table 2.11 summarises these announcements.
Table 2.11. OEM announcements related to electric cars
Original equipment manufacturer
BMW
BJEV-BAIC
BYD
Chonquing Changan
Dongfeng Motor CO
FCA
Ford
Geely
GM
Honda
Hyundai-Kia
Mahindra &
Mahindra
Mazda
Mercedes-Benz
Other Chinese OEMs
PSA
Renault-Nissan-
Mitsubishi
Maruti Suzuki
Tesla
Announcement
15-25% of the BMW Group’s sales in 2025 and 25 new EV models by 2025.
0.5million electric car sales in 2020 and 1.3 million electric car sales in 2025.
0.6million electric car sales in 2020.
21 new BEV models and 12 new PHEV models by 2025, 1.7 million sales by 2025 (100% of group’s sales).
6 new EV models by 2020 and 30% electric sales share in 2022.
28 new EV models by 2022.
40 new EV models by 2022.
1 million sales and 90% of sales in 2020.
20 new EV models by 2023.
15% electric vehicle sale share in 2030 (part of two-thirds of electrified vehicles by 2030, globally and by 2025 in Europe).
12 new EV models by 2020.
0.036 million electric car sales in 2020.
One new EV model in 2020 and 5% of Mazda sales to be fully electric by 2030.
0.1 million sales in 2020, 10 new EV models by 2022 and 25% of the group’s sales in 2025.
7 million sales in 2020.
0.9 million sales in 2022.
12 new EV models by 2022. Renault plans 20% of the group’s sales in 2022 to be fully electric. Infiniti plans to have all models electric by 2021.
A new EV models in 2020, 35 000 electric car sales in 2021 up to 1.5 million in
2030.
Around 0.5 million sales in 2019 and a new EV model in 2030.
PAGE | 84
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Original equipment manufacturer
Toyota
Volkswagen
Announcement
More than ten new models by the early 2020s and 1 million BEV and FCEV sales around 2030.
0.4 million electric car sales in 2020, up to 3 million electric car sales in 2025, 25% of the group’s sales in 2025, 80 new EV models by 2025 and 22 million cumulative sales by 2030.
Volvo |
50% of group’s sales to be fully electric by 2025. |
Notes: Bold and italic font indicates updates since the Global EV Outlook 2018 (IEA, 2018a). This table is based on the IEA’s understanding of companies’ announcements and may not be complete. It intends to present announcements only related to electric cars (PHEVs and BEVs), therefore other announcements by OEMs that include hybrid vehicles and give no specific indication regarding the PHEV/BEV share are not included here..
Sources: BMW - Electric Cars Report (2018); BMW Group (2017); Mitchell (2017). BAIC - Xinhua News (2017); Finance Sina (2017); Dixon (2017); ICCT (2018). BYD - China Economic Net (2018). Chonquing Changan - Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Yearbook (2018); Changan (2017); ICCT (2018). Dongfeng Motor Co. - Tabeta (2018); Online Car Market (2017). Fiat Chrysler - Automotive News Europe (2018). Ford - Carey and White (2018). Geely - Xinhua (2018); National Business Daily (2018a); Finance Sina (2018). GM -General Motors (2017). Honda - Healey (2016). Hyundai-Kia - Jin (2017). Mahindra & Mahindra - The Economic Times (2018). Infiniti
– Bloomberg (2019b). Mazda – Mazda (2018); Charged Electric Vehicles Magazine (2017). Mercedes-Benz - Daimler (2018a); Reuters (2016). Other Chinese OEMs - personal communication with Jiang Liu (Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, China); Energy Cngold (2018). PSA - Reuters (2017b); InsideEVs (2017). Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (2019)
Groupe Renault (2017). Maruti Suzuki – Maruti Suzuki (2018); Nikkei Asian Review (2018b). Tesla – Tesla (2018); PSA (2019); Nussbaum (2017); Cobb (2015); Voelcker (2017); Marklines (2018); Sheehan (2017); Chiba and Fujino (2019). Volkswagen - Reuters (2018a); Reuters (2017a) Volkswagen (2016); Volkswagen (2017); Autocar (2018); China Economic Net (2018). Volvo – Volvo (2019). Toyota - Toyota (2017).
German OEMs were among the most far reaching in their statements regarding the intention to embrace vehicle electrification. In March 2019, Volkswagen announced they would consider leaving the German car industry association Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA) in the absence of a change to concentrate more efforts on battery electric cars (Welt, 2019). Shortly thereafter, BMW and Daimler agreed that electric mobility will be one of the central technologies in the coming decade to comply with environmental legislation in the European Union and that VDA will work towards a consensus paper as the basis for the expansion of the charging infrastructure as well as future funding schemes (Murphy, 2019).
In Japan, Toyota stated its intention is to continue investing in hydrogen-fuelled vehicles and releasing new models (Tajitsu and Shiraki, 2018).
Some of the OEMs that are leading the way in vehicle electrification opted to share technologies and platforms with other manufacturers. For example, Volkswagen announced that it is willing to share its new EV platform (the Modular Electric Toolkit-MEB) with others (Volkswagen, 2019a). Similarly, Toyota announced that it will share its hybrid technology patents with other OEMs (Omoto, 2019), a move that resembles the one made by Tesla in 2014 (Tesla, 2014). This can be interpreted as a way to hedge against the risk of taking a major technology initiative in isolation from other manufacturers and therefore as something that increases chances of wider consumer awareness and buy-in for the new technology. In the case of Volkswagen, sharing the technology platform would also help all OEMs to reach economies of scale faster. Overall, increased co-operation among manufacturers is likely to accelerate the technological transition to electric mobility.
As a result of these announcements, the number of electric car models available is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, diversifying the products available. Figure 2.1 shows the distribution of BEV and PHEV models in 2018 and beyond in the three main global electric car markets – China, Europe and United States – classified by passenger car segment. It illustrates that China will remain ahead of other regions in terms of model availability. It also
PAGE | 85
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
indicates that BEVs and PHEVs will be subject to a more homogeneous introduction across all passenger car segments, with the main exception of PHEVs in the small vehicle segment.
Figure 2.1. Electric car models available: 2018 and expected additions
80 |
|
BEV models |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
80 |
|
PHEV models |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
70 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
70 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
0 |
|
Small car |
|
Medium car |
|
Crossover |
|
Large car |
|
SUV |
|
|
Small car |
|
Medium car |
|
Crossover |
|
Large car |
|
SUV |
|
|
Small car |
|
Medium car |
|
Crossover |
|
Large car |
|
SUV |
|
0 |
|
Small car |
|
Medium car |
|
Crossover |
|
Large car |
|
|
SUV |
|
Small car |
|
|
Medium car |
|
|
Crossover |
|
|
Large car |
|
SUV |
|
Small car |
|
Medium car |
|
|
Crossover |
|
|
Large car |
|
SUV |
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
China |
|
|
European Union |
|
|
|
|
|
United States |
|
|
|
|
|
|
China |
|
|
|
|
|
|
European Union |
|
|
|
United States |
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expected additions |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Models up to 2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Notes: Data refer to unique models from all manufacturers.
Sources: EV Volumes (2019), Marklines (2019).
In 2018, EV models were not represented equally across car size segments, but announced models are more equally distributed. PHEVs are unlikely to be available for the small car segment.
Two/three-wheelers
The production of electric two-wheelers has been centred in China and focused mainly on lowspeed and short-range vehicles (see Chapter 1, Small electric vehicles for urban transport). However, the market is beginning to move towards electrification of two-wheelers with performance characteristics (speed in particular) that are compatible with competing ICE technologies.
Part of this change can be attributed to new players. The Chinese company NIU, which sold 290 000 electric scooters in 2018, entered joined the stock market and is expanding its sales to Europe and North America (NIU, 2019). Another important new player is Gogoro, which is based in Chinese Taipei but is present in Europe as well (Box 2.3). Govecs, an electric scooter start-up in Europe with around 15 000 sales annually, is rapidly expanding and will soon join the stock market (Randall C. , 2018).
Incumbent manufacturers are also joining the electric two-wheeler market: BMW, Honda, Peugeot and Piaggio all have at least one electric model in their line-up. In India, the main twowheeler manufacturer, Hero Moto Corp, offers seven electric models. Ducati and Harley Davidson, premium motorcycle companies, have announced ambitious electrification plans. The technical specifications of premium two-wheelers are very high as all-electric range of 100200 km is not uncommon. It is interesting to note, that in premium electric scooters, regenerative braking is becoming a common feature, thus further reducing their energy consumption.
PAGE | 86
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
|
|
|
|
Box 2.3. Electric two-wheelers: industry roll-out of battery-swapping
In 2018, electric two-wheelers were 8% of sales in Chinese Taipei. Over 120 000 vehicles registered were sold by Gogoro (Chinese Taipei , 2019). The electric two-wheelers come with a monthly subscription to access a network of swapping stations where batteries are charged. This makes Gogoro both an OEM and a charging network operator. This system frees users from range limitations and concerns that the battery capacity of their scooter degrades over time. The local government supports the expansion of Gogoro with about USD 1 140 per vehicle and USD 10 800 per charging station (Chinese Taipei, 2018; Chen, 2017). Charging stations are open to users of other brands, provided they use the same battery standard. This roll-out of high-performance electric two-wheelers can be an example for other markets that seek to introduce electric twowheelers and where slow speed two-wheelers are not popular. However, the success of Gogoro in Chinese Taipei is specific for an area with high population density, high modal share of twowheelers and availability of public funds. Gogoro has also introduced shared scooters (without battery-swapping) in partnership with Bosch and without public funds in several European cities, branding the scheme as Coup.
Sources: Wang (2018); (Chinese Taipei , 2019); Li (2015).
Buses
Most activity in the electric bus market is in China and the largest key players in this field are Chinese OEMs. During 2018, policy action and increased interest in bus electrification spread widely across other regions relative to previous years. Notable leading developments include:
•In Europe, BYD, a Chinese manufacturer, started production at its second European battery factory (in France) and is supplying buses to the United Kingdom (BYD, 2018b) (ADL, 2018). Alfabus, also a Chinese manufacturer, began supplying its products in Italy (Sustainable Bus, 2018a). Today at least three major Chinese OEMs are offering their models on the European market (BYD, Yutong and Alfabus). European OEMs including Daimler, Scania, Solaris, MAN, VDL, Volvo, and Iveco continue to increase their electric bus supply (Transport & Environment, 2018).
•In the FAME Phase II scheme in India, the ambition to promote the electrification of public transportation includes an aim to deploy 7 000 buses (Cabinet of India, 2019). Co-operation between Indian and Chinese OEMs has started. For example, Olectra Greentech Limited (formerly Goldstone) and BYD are producing electric buses for India with a target to manufacture 5 000 units annually by March 2021 (Sustainable Bus, 2018b). Other Indian OEMs such as Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland have taken steps to increase production or introduce new models (UITP, 2018).
•The three main suppliers of electric buses in North America are BYD (Chinese), New Flyer (Canadian) and Proterra (United States). Both BYD and New Flyer have announced increased investments in electric bus factories in the United States (CleanTechnica, 2018; Mass Transit, 2018). Proterra has received investment by Daimler with the aim of jointly developing electric school buses (Proterra, 2018).
•In other regions, electric buses are being supplied by Chinese OEMs including BYD, Sunwin Bus Corporation, Yutong, Zhongtong Bus, Higer Bus and King Long. This is the case for
PAGE | 87
IEA. All rights reserved.