- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace
- •Policies have major influences on the development of electric mobility
- •Technology advances are delivering substantial cost reductions for batteries
- •Strategic importance of the battery technology value chain is increasingly recognised
- •Other technology developments are contributing to cost cuts
- •Private sector response confirms escalating momentum for electric mobility
- •Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
- •Electric cars save more energy than they use
- •Electric mobility increases demand for raw materials
- •Managing change in the material supply chain
- •Safeguarding government revenue from transport taxation
- •New mobility modes have challenges and offer opportunities
- •References
- •Introduction
- •Electric Vehicles Initiative
- •EV 30@30 Campaign
- •Global EV Pilot City Programme
- •Scope, content and structure of the report
- •1. Status of electric mobility
- •Vehicle and charger deployment
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Stock
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Sales and market share
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Publicly accessible chargers
- •Small electric vehicles for urban transport
- •Stock and sales
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Low-speed electric vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Buses
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Trucks
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Other modes
- •Shipping
- •Aviation
- •Energy use and well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •Electricity demand and oil displacement
- •Well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •References
- •2. Prospects for electric mobility development
- •Electric mobility targets: Recent developments
- •Country-level targets
- •City-level targets
- •Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure
- •Charging standards
- •Hardware
- •Communication protocols
- •Supporting policies
- •Canada
- •China
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policies
- •European Union
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •India
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Japan
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •Korea
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •United States
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •Other countries
- •The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
- •Industry roll-out plans
- •Vehicles
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •References
- •3. Outlook
- •Scenario definitions
- •Electric vehicle projections
- •Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
- •Global results
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Regional insights
- •China
- •Europe
- •India
- •Japan
- •United States and Canada
- •Other countries
- •Implications for automotive batteries
- •Capacity of automotive batteries
- •Material demand for automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses
- •Publicly accessible chargers for LDVs
- •Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand
- •Electricity demand from EVs
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the New Policies Scenario
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario
- •Implications of electric mobility for GHG emissions
- •References
- •4. Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Context
- •Methodology
- •Key insights
- •Detailed assessment
- •Life-cycle GHG emissions: drivers and potential for emissions reduction
- •Effect of mileage on EV life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Effect of vehicle size and power on EV life-cycle emissions
- •Effect of power system and battery manufacturing emissions on EV life-cycle emissions
- •References
- •5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment
- •Vehicle and battery costs
- •Challenge
- •EV purchase prices are not yet competitive with ICE vehicles
- •Indications from the total cost of ownership analysis
- •Effect of recent battery cost reductions on the cost gap
- •Impacts of developments in 2018 on the total cost of ownership
- •Solutions
- •Battery cost reductions
- •Reducing EV costs with simpler and innovative design architectures
- •Adapting battery sizes to travel needs
- •Supply and value chain sustainability of battery materials
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Towards sustainable minerals sourcing via due diligence principles
- •Initiatives for better battery supply chain transparency and sustainable extractive activities
- •Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
- •Battery end-of-life management
- •Implications of electric mobility for power systems
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Potential for controlled EV charging to deliver grid services and participate in electricity markets
- •Enabling flexibility from EVs
- •Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
- •Government revenue from taxation
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Near-term options
- •Long-term solutions
- •Shared and automated mobility
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •References
- •Statistical annex
- •Electric car stock
- •New electric car sales
- •Market share of electric cars
- •Electric light commercial vehicles (LCV)
- •Electric vehicle supply equipment stock
- •References
- •Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
- •Table of contents
- •List of Figures
- •List of Boxes
- •List of Tables
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
several cities in Chile and Colombia, and a few others in Latin America (China Dialogue, 2019). In Australia, companies such as Yutong and Zhongtong have also begun trials for some routes (Australasian Bus & Coach, 2019).
Trucks
In 2018, OEMs announced ambitious plans to electrify their product lines and some of the first models have become commercially available. Significant plans to electrify mediumand heavy-duty vehicles have been announced by DAF, Daimler, MAN, Navistar, Nikola, PACCAR, Volkswagen and Volvo (Daimler, 2019a, 2019b, 2019c; Hurt, 2018; Randall, 2019a; (DAF Trucks, 2018); MAN, 2018a, 2018b; Volvo Trucks, 2018).32 Emerging OEMs such as Tesla and Thor Trucks and others have joined incumbent OEMs with their announcements to roll out production (Kolodny and Petrova, 2018; Tesla, 2019b).
Figure 2.2. Heavy-duty electric truck models announced for commercialisation
Gross Vehicle Weight (tonnes)
45 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Daimler |
Freightliner |
Daimler |
Freightliner |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
eM2 |
|
|
|
eCascadia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nikola One 2021 |
|
||
|
VW MAN eTGM, 4x2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Scania R 450 Hybrid |
|
|
Nikola Tre |
2023 |
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
Tesla Semi |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
|
|
2021 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tesla Semi - Long range |
|
|
|
||||||||
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
Volvo FE Electric |
BYD T9 |
Renault D Wide Z.E. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
30 |
|
|
|
|
|
VW MAN City truck |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
|
VW MAN CitE 2021 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
VW MAN eTGM, 6x2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2021 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
DAF LF Electric |
Daimler E-Fuso One 2022 |
|
|
|
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
20 |
|
Daimler eActros 2021 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Volvo FL Electric |
|
Open - retrofitted |
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Renault D Z.E. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fuel cell electric |
|
|
|||||||
Fuso eCanter |
Emoss EMS 18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
Emoss range extender |
Battery electric |
|
|
||||||||||||||
10 |
|
|
|
|
Emoss EMS 16 |
|
|
|
|
In production |
|
|
||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Eforce One E44 2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
Customer trials |
|
|
||||||
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prototype |
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
0 |
|
|
Cummins AEOS BYD T7 |
BYD T5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Catenary-enabled hybrid |
|
|
|||||||
0 |
200 |
|
400 |
600 |
800 |
1 000 |
1 200 |
1 400 |
1 600 |
1 800 |
||||||||||||
|
|
Range (kilometres)
Notes: Heavy-duty electric trucks here have a gross vehicle weight > 15 tonnes. Model launch in 2019 or before if no other year indicated.
Sources: E Force One - E Force One (2018). EMOSS - EMOSS (2018) and Allison Transmission (2018). Cummins AEOS - Baumann (2018). eFuso and eActros - Daimler (2018b; 2018c). MAN - MAN (2018a; 2018c). Volvo FL Electric and FE Electric - Volvo Group (2018). Tesla Semi - Tesla (2019b); Ayre (2018).
A growing number of electric heavy-freight truck models will hit the market soon, offering larger sizes and wider driving ranges.
Efforts are concentrated around the electrification of medium-duty trucks that are mostly used for urban delivery or waste collection. These categories are the most favourable for electrification due to relatively short driving range requirements (around 200 km). All OEMs with electric ambitions have announced at least one model for this segment and models by
32 These plans mention driver comfort and noise reduction as important benefits yielded by electrification, in addition to the traditional benefits of reduced fuel costs, emissions and pollution.
PAGE | 88
IEA. All rights reserved.