uncertainty. These include: the mission profiles of truck usage that are electrified, which impact mileage and therefore energy use; the average power capacity of the chargers trucks use; and the capacity factor of the chargers.

Private chargers

Light-duty vehicles

The number of private LDV chargers is projected to expand from nearly 5 million today to about 127 million in 2030 in the New Policy Scenario (Figure 3.6). This corresponds to an average annual growth rate over the projection period of 31%, which is slightly faster than the uptake of EVs due to the expected growth in the ratio of private chargers per EV in China and Japan.16

The LDV private charging infrastructure accounts for 0.9 TW of installed charging capacity in 2030 in the New Policies Scenario, with an average annual growth rate of 39%. This is larger than that of the number of chargers, as most home chargers and part of the workplace chargers are upgraded from level 1 to level 2 in order to enable a wider uptake of smart charging options (Cambridge Econometrics, 2018).17,18 The low capacity factors for home and workplace chargers lead to a total electricity demand of about 310 TWh in the New Policies Scenario.19

In the EV30@30 Scenario, the number of private LDV chargers is about 245 million in 2030, which entails a total capacity of installed chargers of 1.7 TW and leads to an electricity demand of almost 600 TWh.

Buses

Private chargers for buses are 550 000 units in 2030 in the New Policies Scenario, up from 192 000 today. The deployment of private chargers dedicated to electric buses occurs at a slower pace than the growth in the electric bus stock. This is the result of the combination of a number of drivers that justify a reduction of the charger to bus ratio over time, including:

•A tendency to increase the average power output per charger, related to a gradual switch

from the current reliance on conventional DC fast charging at 50 kW to more use of ultrafast charging.20 Based on this, the average power of each bus charger increases from 50 kW in 2018 to 190 kW in 2030 in both scenarios.

•A tendency towards a reduction in the number of chargers per bus. For chargers having a power capacity of 50 kW, experience in the city of Shenzhen – the first big city to move to

16Private LDV chargers in China and Japan, which currently have a higher reliance on fast chargers, are expected to be aligned with the Chinese target of 0.93 chargers per EV (Government of China, 2015). Countries in the rest of the world have not set specific targets and therefore keep a stable ratio of approximately 1.1 chargers per EV in the New Policies Scenario, aligned with historical developments.

17Examples of smart charging options include power management systems enabling the optimisation of the use of available power capacity (talking into account network-related constraints), load shifting, the provision of system flexibility services and the use of bidirectional power flows in vehicle-to-X applications.

18Globally, the power rate of private LDV charging is assumed to increase from 3.5 kW in 2018 (EVI country submissions) to 6.5 kW in 2030 due to increased battery size and consumer demand for quicker charging times. The charger per EV ratio used for this assessment has been explored in-depth in the Global EV Outlook 2018 (IEA, 2018a).

19The capacity factor for private chargers is the ratio of the energy they deliver and what they could deliver if used at full capacity. The energy delivered is essentially dictated by the distances driven by electric cars and the energy they use per km. For a car driven

12 000 km a year, six days a week and 51 weeks per year, the average daily distance is 40 km. Multiplied by 0.2 kWh/km gives 8 kWh/day. This is 11% of the electricity that can be delivered by a 3 kW charger at full capacity and 5% for a 7 kW charger.

20 Both opportunity charging and depot charging are compatible which ultra-fast power (Zero Emission Urban Bus System, 2017).

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large-scale deployment of electric buses based on depot charging and which has achieved a fully electrified bus fleet – indicates that one charger is shared by three buses (Lu et al., 2018).21 For chargers having larger power capacity, the same time allocation allowed by the case of Shenzhen to charging activities would allow for a higher number of buses to be coupled with a single charging unit (eventually equipped with multiple connectors). If the average charging power increases to 165 kW, applying the same time constraint of Shenzhen (reduced by 20% to reflect the increased complexity of sharing chargers across a rising number of buses) leads to the possibility to share the same charging unit by eight buses.22

Taking into account of these considerations in combination with the projections for electric bus deployment in the New Policies Scenario, indicates a cumulative power capacity for private bus chargers of 0.1 TW in 2030 and total electricity draw of nearly 170 TWh. In the EV30@30 Scenario, private bus chargers and charging power almost double relative to the New Policies Scenario, and electricity demand overpasses 220 TWh, reflecting the wider increase in electric bus deployment.

Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses

The total number of private charging points (excluding those for two/three-wheelers) is projected to reach 128 million in 2030 in the New Policies Scenario, up from about 5 million private charging points today (Figure 3.6). About 99% are slow chargers serving LDVs, installed at home and/or workplace. The hypotheses on the evolution of home and workplace charging towards level 2 and the average power of the bus chargers going to 190 kW mean that the overall installed capacity for private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses reach nearly 1 TW in 2030 in the New Policies Scenario. Comparing this with the global installed capacity of air conditioning units in 2016 – 15 TW – helps to understand the relatively limited magnitude of this value (IEA, 2018b). Total electricity demand from private chargers for LDVs and buses is almost 480 TWh in 2030 in the New Policies Scenario.

Given the low capacity of home and workplace chargers, the share of private LDV chargers is lower when expressed in terms of terawatts than in terms of the number of chargers. By 2030, LDV chargers represent 90% of the power capacity of all private chargers installed for LDVs and buses. The comparatively low capacity factor of home and workplace chargers relative to bus chargers further reduces the weight of LDV slow chargers in the total of all LDV and bus chargers if they are compared on the basis of the energy they deliver. By 2030, LDV chargers account for about 65% of all energy delivered to LDVs and buses through private chargers.

The size of the private charger stock in the EV30@30 Scenario is almost double the size of the charger stock in the New Policies Scenario, reaching 245 million charging points in 2030. This situation corresponds to a total installed charging capacity of 1.8 TW in 2030 and consumption of 820 TWh of power.

21This is consistent with an average energy use of 1.1 kWh/km and a usage profile of 200 km/day (compatible with an average speed of 20 km/h and a daily duration of use of 10 hours), since this would lead to a charging time slightly below 4.5 hours, allowing for three buses to charge in off-peak times of transport demand.

22A tendency to reduce the number of chargers per bus is also consistent with a certain degree of reliance on opportunity chargers, which are coupled with a lower charger to bus ratio than the one-to-one value characterising early depot charging developments in Europe.

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LDV chargers

Note: NPS = New Policies Scenario.

Source: IEA analysis developed with the IEA Mobility Model (IEA, 2019a).

Energy demand

1 000

2018 2030 2030 NPS EV30@30

Bus chargers

23 The “Pathways Coalition” announced in 2018 by Scania, E.On, H&M and Siemens is an interesting development in this respect (Scania, 2018).

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