- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace
- •Policies have major influences on the development of electric mobility
- •Technology advances are delivering substantial cost reductions for batteries
- •Strategic importance of the battery technology value chain is increasingly recognised
- •Other technology developments are contributing to cost cuts
- •Private sector response confirms escalating momentum for electric mobility
- •Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
- •Electric cars save more energy than they use
- •Electric mobility increases demand for raw materials
- •Managing change in the material supply chain
- •Safeguarding government revenue from transport taxation
- •New mobility modes have challenges and offer opportunities
- •References
- •Introduction
- •Electric Vehicles Initiative
- •EV 30@30 Campaign
- •Global EV Pilot City Programme
- •Scope, content and structure of the report
- •1. Status of electric mobility
- •Vehicle and charger deployment
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Stock
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Sales and market share
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Publicly accessible chargers
- •Small electric vehicles for urban transport
- •Stock and sales
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Low-speed electric vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Buses
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Trucks
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Other modes
- •Shipping
- •Aviation
- •Energy use and well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •Electricity demand and oil displacement
- •Well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •References
- •2. Prospects for electric mobility development
- •Electric mobility targets: Recent developments
- •Country-level targets
- •City-level targets
- •Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure
- •Charging standards
- •Hardware
- •Communication protocols
- •Supporting policies
- •Canada
- •China
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policies
- •European Union
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •India
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Japan
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •Korea
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •United States
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •Other countries
- •The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
- •Industry roll-out plans
- •Vehicles
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •References
- •3. Outlook
- •Scenario definitions
- •Electric vehicle projections
- •Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
- •Global results
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Regional insights
- •China
- •Europe
- •India
- •Japan
- •United States and Canada
- •Other countries
- •Implications for automotive batteries
- •Capacity of automotive batteries
- •Material demand for automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses
- •Publicly accessible chargers for LDVs
- •Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand
- •Electricity demand from EVs
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the New Policies Scenario
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario
- •Implications of electric mobility for GHG emissions
- •References
- •4. Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Context
- •Methodology
- •Key insights
- •Detailed assessment
- •Life-cycle GHG emissions: drivers and potential for emissions reduction
- •Effect of mileage on EV life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Effect of vehicle size and power on EV life-cycle emissions
- •Effect of power system and battery manufacturing emissions on EV life-cycle emissions
- •References
- •5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment
- •Vehicle and battery costs
- •Challenge
- •EV purchase prices are not yet competitive with ICE vehicles
- •Indications from the total cost of ownership analysis
- •Effect of recent battery cost reductions on the cost gap
- •Impacts of developments in 2018 on the total cost of ownership
- •Solutions
- •Battery cost reductions
- •Reducing EV costs with simpler and innovative design architectures
- •Adapting battery sizes to travel needs
- •Supply and value chain sustainability of battery materials
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Towards sustainable minerals sourcing via due diligence principles
- •Initiatives for better battery supply chain transparency and sustainable extractive activities
- •Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
- •Battery end-of-life management
- •Implications of electric mobility for power systems
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Potential for controlled EV charging to deliver grid services and participate in electricity markets
- •Enabling flexibility from EVs
- •Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
- •Government revenue from taxation
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Near-term options
- •Long-term solutions
- •Shared and automated mobility
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •References
- •Statistical annex
- •Electric car stock
- •New electric car sales
- •Market share of electric cars
- •Electric light commercial vehicles (LCV)
- •Electric vehicle supply equipment stock
- •References
- •Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
- •Table of contents
- •List of Figures
- •List of Boxes
- •List of Tables
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Japan
The key policy updates that are expected to drive the transition to electric mobility in Japan are summarised in Table 2.8.
Table 2.8.
Country
Japan
Overview of EV and EVSE policies in Japan, 2018/19
|
Policy type |
|
Description |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regulations |
|
Fuel economy standards for HDVs in 2025. |
|
|
(vehicles) |
|
Fuel economy standards for LDVs in 2020 and 2030. |
|
|
Incentives |
|
Tax incentives and/or exemptions for the acquisition of HEVs, |
|
|
(vehicles) |
|
PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Targets (vehicles) |
|
15-20% EV sales in PLDVs by 2020 and 20-30% by 2030. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Industrial policy |
|
Reduction of 80% of GHG emissions per vehicle produced by |
|
|
|
Japanese automakers by 2050. |
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
Incentives |
|
Available for charger deployment. |
|
|
(chargers) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Targets (chargers) |
|
Targets for public chargers in cities and along highways. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vehicle policies
In March 2019, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) introduced new fuel economy standards for heavy vehicles running on diesel, including trucks and buses (Government of Japan, 2019a).18 According to the regulation, new trucks and other heavy vehicles should have a fuel economy of 7.63 kilometres per litre (km/L) by 2025 (implying an efficiency improvement of 13.4% relative to the 2015 standards), and a level of 6.52 km/L for buses by 2025 (implying an efficiency improvement of 13.4% relative to the 2015 standards). The regulation has relevance for electric mobility due to its capacity to improve efficiency, but it does not have specific provisions for EVs.
Japan also updated its fuel economy standard for LDVs to align it with the 2030 next generation vehicle target. The update sets a limit of 25.4 km/L (3.9 L/100 km), calculated with the Worldwide harmonized Light-duty Test Cycle (WLTC) (Government of Japan, 2019b), tightening the 2020 limit of 19.4 km/L (5.2 L/100 km)19 and opening up the scope for increased vehicle electrification.20
18The regulation applies to vehicles with a total weight of more than 3.5 tonnes.
19These values are expressed here in WLTC terms, but were initially set according to the JC08 test cycle. In its original formulation, the 2020 threshold was 20.3 km/L (4.9 L/100 km) (JAMA, 2018).
20The 2020 target, already met in 2014, had only a limited scope for electrification (IEA, 2019).
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IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Japan also uses tax incentives for the purchase of hybrid electric vehicles (depending on the degree of fuel economy improvements), PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs. It exempts PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs from purchase and weight taxes as part of the clean energy vehicle subsidies scheme.21
Charging infrastructure policies
Japan’s direct support for charging infrastructure has been decreasing in recent years. It allocated JPY 100.5 billion (Japanese yen, USD 1 billion) to charging infrastructure in the firsthalf of the last decade (Marchetti, 2013). The budget allocation fell to JPY 6.9 billion (USD 63 million) between 2016 and 2019.22 This is partly due to the fact that roughly a third of the 2013-15 budget was expended. In addition to the incentives, Japan’s New Era of Automobiles Strategy includes plans to harmonise future charging standards, which is fostering collaboration with China (Government of Japan, 2018). The New Era of Automobiles Strategy provides support to various R&D projects for the 2018-23 period that are assessing the feasibility of wireless charging and vehicle-to-grid applications.
Industrial policy
In April 2018, METI launched a strategic commission for a “new era of automobiles”, which is developing a long-term goal and strategy for the Japanese automotive industry to tackle climate change. An interim report of the strategic commission outlines a 2050 goal to reduce 80% of GHG emissions per vehicle produced by Japanese automakers (Government of Japan, 2018). For passenger vehicles, the ambition outlined in the interim report is more ambitious at 90% reduction of GHG emissions per vehicle to be achieved with a 100% market share of EVs (HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs or FCEVs). Importantly, METI’s strategic commission specifies that its goal is to realise well-to-wheel zero emissions, thus linking the strategy to its efforts to fully decarbonise the energy supply (electricity and hydrogen) (Government of Japan, 2018). The strategy also states the ambition to stimulate innovation in terms of “how vehicles are used”, for example looking into concepts such as mobility as a service (MaaS), and connected and autonomous driving.
Regarding batteries, the strategy makes explicit references to a co-operative approach across industrial stakeholders, to the formulation of policies on joint procurement and stock of resources (such as cobalt). Moreover, it includes elements related to research and innovation in “next generation electrification technology”, citing ambitious targets for automotive batteries, including a cost reduction target of JPY 10 000 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) (USD 90/kWh) for solid state batteries and an energy density objective of 500 watt-hour per kilogramme (W-h/kg). Fuel cell stacks are also covered, with a target of 75% price reduction for the stack by 2025. Altogether, this strategy provides a clear implicit signal of the ambition to phase out the production of ICE vehicles by Japanese automakers, and the vision of METI to fully transition passenger vehicles to a zero-emissions fleet.
21 In 2017, the latter had a budget allocation of JPY 13.0 billion (USD 116 million) (Sato, 2018). In the same year, this was complemented by JPY 1 billion (USD 9 million) to accelerate the introduction of HEV, PHEV and BEV trucks and buses, and JPY 2.6 billion (USD 22 million) to promote FCEV buses utilising hydrogen generated by renewable energy (Sato, 2018).
22 Personal communication with Zuiou Ashihara, Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A similar magnitude is also indicated in Sato (2018). Subsidy for projects to build hydrogen supply facilities totalled JPY 5.7 billion (USD 5 million) in 2017 (Sato, 2018).
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IEA. All rights reserved.