In the EV30@30 Scenario, the number of publicly accessible chargers rises faster than in the New Policies Scenario, in parallel with a larger uptake of EVs. Publicly accessible chargers account for almost 20 million units in 2030, coupled with a power capacity of 215 GW and consumption of 1 240 TWh of electricity. In the EV30@30 Scenario, the number of publicly accessible fast chargers reach 0.8 million, corresponding to a total power capacity of 78 GW and consuming nearly 100 TWh in 2030.

Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand

Electricity demand from EVs

As the stock of electric vehicles and their use expands, more electricity will be needed. In the New Policies Scenario, power demand from the global EV fleet is projected to reach almost 640 TWh in 2030, about equivalent to the total final electricity consumption in Germany and the Netherlands in 2017 (IEA, 2019d) (Figure 3.8). This is a tenfold increase from the 2018 level of 58 TWh. In the EV30@30 Scenario, the larger volume of EVs demands slightly more than 1 100 TWh of electricity in 2030, almost double the amount of the New Policies Scenario.

Projected electricity consumed by EVs in both scenarios suggests that EVs are going to be far more significant for power systems than they have been in the past and that they will be a driver of increments in peak power generation and transmission capacity. Assessing the extent to which power systems can be impacted must consider the additional power needed for EVs on an annual basis as well as the daily EV charging profiles, the power rate for chargers and locational considerations.

Figure 3.8 indicates that slow chargers (particularly private LDV chargers) account for about 60% of total electricity demand to charge EVs in 2030 (shares differ by region reflecting the extent of EV uptake across different transport modes). This helps power system management as slow charging provides opportunities for EVs to enhance flexibility. As fast charging demand is highest for buses, concentrating these charging events at night with depot charging, when both transport and electricity demand are lower, could help flatten the overall shape of the power demand curve. Opportunity charging requires high power draws during the day, so depot charging is likely to have lower impacts on the power system.