Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Daimler and BYD are commercially available. Some of these announcements (including Navistar – together with Volkswagen, Thor Trucks and Tesla) relate to the introduction of electric mediumto long-haul trucks. Longer range BEV trucks have been announced by Tesla and Freightliner, both class 8 trucks with electric ranges of 480-960 km. The Tesla Semi is in commercial testing and market introduction is expected as early as 2019. Figure 2.2 provides an overview of selected electric trucks which have been introduced to the market recently or will be available for sale in the near term. It focuses on freight vehicles with a long driving range, which excludes terminal vehicles and service vehicles for street cleaning or waste collection.
Figure 2.2 includes FCEV options that have been proposed for long-haul road freight by Toyota (Toyota, 2018) and three other models of FCEV long-haul trucks by the North American start-up Nikola (Nikola Corp, 2018). The longer ranges of FCEVs (up to 1 600 km) compared to BEV are mentioned as a key advantage for this market segment.
Automotive batteries
It is estimated that approximately 70 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery cells were produced for electric LDVs in 2018. Production is concentrated in China, which accounts for over 50% global market share, with the rest being split between the United States, Korea and Japan. There are currently around 60 manufacturers in China with the top-two companies, BYD and CATL, accounting for more than half of the Chinese market. To reap the benefits of economies of scale, battery manufacturing is moving to increase manufacturing capacity. Even if the majority of production still is sourced from small plants (3-8 GWh/year capacity), several recent announcements of production capacity expansion point to an increase in plant size as well as new entrants in the automotive battery market (Table 2.12), adding to increases in capacity utilisation rates of existing plants (Benchmark Minerals, 2018). Each of the three biggest battery factories currently in operation, all recently built, have a capacity of 20 GWh/year and account for roughly 21% of the total installed capacity (EV Volumes, 2019).33 Most of these are located in China, Japan and Korea.
Eight plants with a capacity of more than 20 GWh/year are expected to be in production by 2023. In total, these will have a production capacity of more than 180 GWh/year, almost 2.5-times more than LDV battery production in 2018. In the longer term, plants with capacities around 100 GWh are being discussed. Panasonic considered expanding production (to 105 GWh/year) at its Gigafactory, but the expansion plans were suspended in April 2019 (Lambert, 2018a). CATL has spoken about the possibility of expanding its Erfurt plant to up to 100 GWh/year (Hetzner, 2019).
Table 2.12. Announced battery manufacturing facilities
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Announcements |
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Panasonic |
United States |
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35 |
GWh/year factory by 2020. |
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CATL |
China |
24 |
GWh/year and 18 GWh factories in 2020. |
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European |
14 |
GWh/year factory in 2021. |
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33 The size of battery manufacturing plants currently is 0.5 GWh/year for minor manufacturers and up to 22 GWh/year for global market leaders (EV Volumes, 2019).
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Global EV Outlook 2019 2. Prospects for electric mobility development
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Announcements |
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98 |
GWh/year factory (date to be determined) to be |
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launched. |
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BYD |
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24 |
GWh/year factory in 2019. |
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China |
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20 |
GWh/year and 30 GWh factories in 2023. |
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10 |
GWh/year factory (date to be determined). |
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LG Chem |
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China |
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China |
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SK innovation |
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European |
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United States |
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LIBCOIN/BHEL |
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India |
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Samsung SDI |
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Northvolt |
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European |
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Lithium Werks |
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China |
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Terra E |
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European |
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15 GWh/year factory in 2022.
32 GWh/year factory in 2023.
7.5 GWh/year factory in 2020.
7.5 GWh/year factory in 2021.
9.8 GWh/year factory in 2022.
30 GWh/year factories, in 2025, 2026 and 2027.
1.65 GWh/year factory in 2020.
32 GWh/year factory in 2023.
8 GWh/year factory in 2021.
4 GWh/year factory in 2020.
Note: Announcements of capacity additions of the largest battery manufacturers in the market categorised by region and by year of expected factory completion.
Sources: Bloomberg (2018b); SAIC Motors (2017); Electrive (2019); Ma (2018); Lithium Werks (2018); NBD (2018b); Automotive News China (2018); Argus (2018); Byung-yeul (2019); Min-hee (2019); Kumar (2019); TerraE (2018); Northvolt (n.d.); Reuters (2018b); BHEL (2018); SK Innovation (2018) and Chiba and Fujino (2019).
The market for battery cells34 has been characterised by overcapacity in recent years and this appears to still be the status. This was favoured by tax exemptions available to electric cars under the New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Programme (Government of China, 2018). Investment in battery manufacturing in China also came from foreign companies. Major examples include LG Chem, which is investing over USD 1 billion to expand their battery production in Nanjing (LG Chem, 2018), and Panasonic, which at its Dalian plant in 2018 started producing over 5 GWh/year (Nikkei Asian Review, 2018c). Lithium Werks, a European battery company, also announced the construction of a 8 GWh/year factory (Lithium Werks, 2018). Foreign investments in battery manufacturing in China may be explained by two factors. First, factories in China can be used for export to other markets. Second, if the announced phase-out of the New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Programme in 2020 is maintained, it can open a large market for all battery manufacturers.
While some manufacturers are suffering the effect of overcapacity, which is leading to market consolidation, recent announcements of upward revision of production targets suggest that
34 The battery cell is the basic element that composes a battery pack. Other components of battery packs include interconnections between cells, temperature sensors and other control systems to manage charging.
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Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
major manufacturers have increased confidence in the demand for battery cells.35 This is the case for battery manufacturing giants like LG Chem, which announced that it will raise its 2020 production target from 70 GWh/year to 90 GWh/year (Korea JoongAng Daily, 2018) (Bloomberg, 2018c) and BYD, which has modified plans for its third Chinese factory such that it will produce 24 GWh/year (BYD, 2018a) rather than 10 GWh/year as originally planned (Bloomberg, 2018b).
Table 2.12 also shows that Asian OEMs are investing in production capacity in Europe to supply the expected increase in production of EVs. This follows the signature of large contracts by major OEMs, especially in Germany. Examples include BMW’s USD 4.7 billion contract to procure batteries from CATL (Reuters, 2018c), as well as Daimler’s commitment to purchase USD 20 billion of battery cells over the coming decade from yet unspecified suppliers (Daimler, 2019d) and Volkswagen’s statement announcing the selection of LG Chem, SK Innovation, CATL and Samsung as strategic battery cell suppliers (Volkswagen, 2019b). The European battery manufacturer with the most advanced plans to begin large-scale battery manufacturing in Europe is Northvolt, currently building a factory in Sweden with a capacity of 8 GWh/year that is to be expanded to 32 GWh/year by 2023 (Hampel, 2019).
It is important to highlight that European companies are investing in solid state battery R&D, hoping to gain an edge over Asian competitors in the next generation of battery cells instead of trying to compete on current technologies. Examples include SAFT investment of EUR 200300 million in solid state technology (Reuters, 2018d), as well as Volkswagen’s investment of USD 100 million in a company specialised in solid state batteries (Volkswagen, 2018). At the same time, large investments in solid state battery research are being made in Japan, where an alliance of domestic manufacturers is joining forces (with public support from Japan’s New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) to develop solid state batteries (Nikkei Asian Review, 2018a). Toyota already has experience in solid state battery research since it has filed numerous patents and has built several prototypes. Recently, Toyota and Panasonic created a joint venture with the aim of developing solid state batteries in the early 2020s (Toyota, 2019).
Charging infrastructure
The collection of information on private sector announcements on EV charger deployments made for the Global EV Outlook 2018 focused primarily on the deployment of highway chargers (IEA, 2018a). In this edition, we broaden the coverage of the announcements to also look at other types of chargers. Expanding the scope of the announcements covered leads to an important challenge, closely related to the information shown in Figure 2.3. It summarises announcements on deployment of EV charging infrastructure and categorises them in three main groups: commitments that relate to all types of chargers (coupled with the largest magnitudes); pledges only for publicly accessible chargers; and statements only targeting highway charging infrastructure.
Figure 2.3 illustrates announcements related to charging infrastructure in 2018/19. The most significant are announcements by two large operators: ChargePoint, the world's largest
35 An example is OptimumNano – the third-largest battery manufacturer by volume in 2017 – which has closed 80% of its capacity in 2018 due to financial unsustainability (Reuters, 2018b). Market consolidation is likely to be reinforced from 2020 onwards, as competition with foreign manufacturers will increase due to the end of EV subsidies in China. After 2020, a car manufacturer will not have subsidised incentives to buy cells from a Chinese battery supplier, if it does not have a competing advantage over a non-Chinese supplier.
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Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
network of EV charging stations in the United States and Europe (also a supporter of the EV30@30 Campaign) and EV-Box, a provider originally based in the Netherlands and recently acquired by ENGIE, a large company in the power sector (ENGIE, 2017). The magnitude of these announcements is boosted by the fact that these operators include private chargers and have a multinational presence. Other large-scale EV charging deployment pledges (including private chargers) are from EDF, a major utility. In addition, Enel X, a subsidiary of Enel, is focusing on services for the power market and scaling up its international presence (primarily in Europe and in South America) and targeting businesses, cities and individuals. In the United States, utilities are active in deploying charging infrastructure in states such as California, New York, New Jersey and Maryland (The National Law Forum, 2018). Various large US utilities are in the phase of pilot projects, such as DTE Energy, Duke Energy and Consumers Energy Company. Utilities are also taking action through infrastructure investment (e.g. upgrading transformers) and deploying smart meters.
Figure 2.3. Selected providers of charging infrastructure and recently announced plans/targets
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All types of chargers |
Publicly accessible chargers |
On-highway chargers |
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Government- |
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Next E (252) |
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funded |
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Fast E (370) |
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Charging point |
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ChargePoint |
EVBox |
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operators |
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(2.5 million) |
(1 million) |
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Enel X (0.45 million) |
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Charging service |
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providers |
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EDF |
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SCE (48 000) |
CSPG (25 000) |
NG (500) |
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Utilities |
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(0.3 million) |
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Iberdrola (25 400) |
E.ON (10 000) |
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SGCC (0.12 million) |
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Vehicle |
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SAIC (50 000) |
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EA (3 500) |
Ionity (2 400) |
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OEMs |
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Tesla (22 000) |
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Notes: SGCC = State Grid Corporation of China; SCE = Southern California Edison; CSPG= China Southern Power Grid; SAIC= Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation; EA= Electrify America; NG = National Grid.
The figure includes a selection of major announcements made by market players active in charging infrastructure deployment. In some cases, announcements partially cover already built chargers. The values associated with each announcement represent the number of chargers. When announcements used various terminology, they were translated into “charger equivalents” by assuming: charging station: 4 chargers; charging facility: 4 chargers; charging parks: 4 chargers; charging site: 4 chargers; charging terminal: 4 chargers; charging spot: 1 charger; charging port: 1 charger; charging pole: 1 charger; charging bay: 1 charger. Tesla chargers include only superchargers.
Sources: EDF - Keohane (2018); Electrify America - Krivevski (2019); Iberdrola (2018); Ionity - Lambert (2018b); Mega-E - Manthey (2019); Southern California Edison (2019); State Grid Corporation of China - Xin (2018); Tesla - Supercharge (2019); EV-Box (2018); fast E (2019); National Grid - Climate Works (2018); SAIC - Reuters (2015); China Southern Power Grid - Teamwork Global Group (2018); E.ON - Autocar (2017); EVI submission for Vattenfall.
EVSE deployment pledges are emerging. The largest pledges focus on private chargers, while commitments for highway chargers indicate fewer units.
OEMs, such as Tesla, and charging point operators (both metropolitan and highway) released announcements on the order of thousands of chargers, though those planned for highways are on the order of the hundreds of chargers. Vehicle OEMs (mostly active in this market through joint ventures) tend to focus on either public destination chargers or highway chargers: Tesla,
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Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Electrify America (a subsidiary of Volkswagen) and Porsche all announced public chargers across the United States. Ionity (a joint venture of BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ford Motor Company and Volkswagen Group with Audi and Porsche funded by the European Commission) focuses on highway chargers. In Europe, significant numbers of highway chargers are expected to be developed by electric utilities. For example, in 2018 Iberdrola (a supporter of the EV30@30 Campaign) started deploying fast charging stations in Spain, aiming to install 400 chargers (at least one charging station every 100 km on the main roads) by the end of 2019 (Iberdrola, 2018). Other highway chargers in Europe are set to be deployed through government and EU funded projects. “Connecting Europe Facility” is a key initiative funded by the European Union to install fast chargers across the trans-European transport network (TEN-T), providing full basic coverage in most countries with plans to upgrade to higher power rates (EC, 2019e).36
Even though China has the largest market for EV charging infrastructure, private sector announcements are lower than for European and North American companies. Most publicly announced targets in China originate from state-owned utilities and OEMs. These currently cover less than half of the available chargers. The State Grid Corporation of China has a target of building 120 000 charging points by 2020 and China Southern Power Grid plans to build 25 000 for the same year (Xinhua, 2018b; Teamwork Global Group, 2018). Among automakers, SAIC targets 20 000 charging points by 2020, whereas BAIC and NIO set targets for a total of 4 100 battery-swapping stations (Hove, 2019; Autoblog, 2017; Reuters, 2015).
This overview indicates that a diversified set of private sector stakeholders operate EV chargers. Given that the charging infrastructure market is growing fast, understanding how this market will evolve is not an easy task. Box 2.4 summarises recent market developments, providing key elements to understand how potential consolidations will be shaping the deployment of EV charging infrastructure in the years ahead.
Box 2.4. EV charging infrastructure market: time for consolidation?
In China – the world’s largest EV charging infrastructure market – a consolidation trend is well represented by the recently formed joint venture Xiongan Lianxing Network Technology. It consists of four of the largest private37 and public38 charging infrastructure providers and today controls 80% of China’s charging points (Randall, 2019b).
In Europe, since 2017 large utilities have been substantially increasing investment in EV charging infrastructure. In 2017, Enel acquired eMotoreWerks, a leading supplier of EV chargers in North America, thus expanding its geographical presence (Enel, 2017) and accounting for around 50 000 charging points worldwide in 2018. Also in 2017, ENGIE acquired EV-Box, which currently owns more than 60 000 charging points (ENGIE, 2017). Other European utilities focused on acquiring companies that specialise in charging infrastructure services and software, such as E.ON acquiring a stake in Virta, a charging service company, and Fortum acquiring Plugsurfing (Electrive, 2018; Fortum, 2018). Oil companies are becoming increasingly active in the charging infrastructure
36TEN-T is a Europe-wide network of major roads, railway lines, inland waterways, maritime shipping routes, ports, airports and railroad terminals.
37Qingdao Teld New Energy and Jiangsu Star Charge.
38State Grid Corporation of China and China Southern Power Grid.
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IEA. All rights reserved.