- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace
- •Policies have major influences on the development of electric mobility
- •Technology advances are delivering substantial cost reductions for batteries
- •Strategic importance of the battery technology value chain is increasingly recognised
- •Other technology developments are contributing to cost cuts
- •Private sector response confirms escalating momentum for electric mobility
- •Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
- •Electric cars save more energy than they use
- •Electric mobility increases demand for raw materials
- •Managing change in the material supply chain
- •Safeguarding government revenue from transport taxation
- •New mobility modes have challenges and offer opportunities
- •References
- •Introduction
- •Electric Vehicles Initiative
- •EV 30@30 Campaign
- •Global EV Pilot City Programme
- •Scope, content and structure of the report
- •1. Status of electric mobility
- •Vehicle and charger deployment
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Stock
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Sales and market share
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Publicly accessible chargers
- •Small electric vehicles for urban transport
- •Stock and sales
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Low-speed electric vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Buses
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Trucks
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Other modes
- •Shipping
- •Aviation
- •Energy use and well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •Electricity demand and oil displacement
- •Well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •References
- •2. Prospects for electric mobility development
- •Electric mobility targets: Recent developments
- •Country-level targets
- •City-level targets
- •Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure
- •Charging standards
- •Hardware
- •Communication protocols
- •Supporting policies
- •Canada
- •China
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policies
- •European Union
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •India
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Japan
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •Korea
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •United States
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •Other countries
- •The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
- •Industry roll-out plans
- •Vehicles
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •References
- •3. Outlook
- •Scenario definitions
- •Electric vehicle projections
- •Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
- •Global results
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Regional insights
- •China
- •Europe
- •India
- •Japan
- •United States and Canada
- •Other countries
- •Implications for automotive batteries
- •Capacity of automotive batteries
- •Material demand for automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses
- •Publicly accessible chargers for LDVs
- •Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand
- •Electricity demand from EVs
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the New Policies Scenario
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario
- •Implications of electric mobility for GHG emissions
- •References
- •4. Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Context
- •Methodology
- •Key insights
- •Detailed assessment
- •Life-cycle GHG emissions: drivers and potential for emissions reduction
- •Effect of mileage on EV life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Effect of vehicle size and power on EV life-cycle emissions
- •Effect of power system and battery manufacturing emissions on EV life-cycle emissions
- •References
- •5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment
- •Vehicle and battery costs
- •Challenge
- •EV purchase prices are not yet competitive with ICE vehicles
- •Indications from the total cost of ownership analysis
- •Effect of recent battery cost reductions on the cost gap
- •Impacts of developments in 2018 on the total cost of ownership
- •Solutions
- •Battery cost reductions
- •Reducing EV costs with simpler and innovative design architectures
- •Adapting battery sizes to travel needs
- •Supply and value chain sustainability of battery materials
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Towards sustainable minerals sourcing via due diligence principles
- •Initiatives for better battery supply chain transparency and sustainable extractive activities
- •Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
- •Battery end-of-life management
- •Implications of electric mobility for power systems
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Potential for controlled EV charging to deliver grid services and participate in electricity markets
- •Enabling flexibility from EVs
- •Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
- •Government revenue from taxation
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Near-term options
- •Long-term solutions
- •Shared and automated mobility
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •References
- •Statistical annex
- •Electric car stock
- •New electric car sales
- •Market share of electric cars
- •Electric light commercial vehicles (LCV)
- •Electric vehicle supply equipment stock
- •References
- •Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
- •Table of contents
- •List of Figures
- •List of Boxes
- •List of Tables
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Charging infrastructure
The government targets for 2022 are 10 000 fast EV chargers (with 1 200 added in 2019) and 310 refuelling stations for FCEVs (46 added in 2019) (Government of Korea, 2019a; 2019b).
In 2019, the deployment of chargers will benefit from subsidies of KRW 3.5 million (USD 3 000) for publicly accessible slow chargers,25 KRW 1.3 million (USD 1 200) for private chargers26 and KRW 0.4 million (USD 350) for portable chargers (Government of Korea, 2019a). For fast chargers, subsidies were at KRW 35 million (USD 30 000) in 2018 (Korea Environment Corporation, 2018). Fast chargers are restricted to collective entities and not available for private individuals.
Industrial policy
Like Japan, Korea has ambitions to scale-up overseas sales of low-emission vehicles, with a goal to boost production capacity of zero-emissions cars ten-fold, from the current 1.5% to more than 10% by 2022. To encourage this, manufacturers will receive support to promote ZEV exports in the form of liquidity support and loan guarantees (Government of Korea, 2018). The government also anticipates that BEV exports will increase seven-times from the current 36 000 units to 250 000 units, while exports of FCEVs will rise to 5 000 a year by 2022 (Government of Korea, 2018). To help reach these ambitious targets, the government will increase support for R&D in the areas of chips and batteries to develop key technologies such as solid state, lithiumsulphur and lithium-metal batteries (Manthey, 2018).
United States
The key policy updates that are expected to drive the transition to electric mobility in the United States are summarised in Table 2.10.
Table 2.10. Overview of EV and EVSE policies in the United States, 2018/19
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Countries |
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Policy type |
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Description |
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The federal government has proposed to freeze GHG emission |
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standards for LDVs from 2022 to 2025. |
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United States of |
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Regulations |
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Twenty US states have signalled willingness to adhere to the |
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(vehicles) |
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previously declared update of corporate average fuel economy |
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America |
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(CAFE) standards. |
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ZEV mandate in ten states. |
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Target |
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California aims to have 5 million EVs on the road by 2030. |
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(vehicles) |
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Industrial |
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US Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office supports |
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policy |
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the development of battery and electric drive systems. |
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Incentives |
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Incentives to deploy charging infrastructure are provided in |
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(chargers) |
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more than half of US states. |
25The number of slow charging stations eligible for state support will be limited to a maximum of ten within a “large community” (defines as more than 1 000 households) to prevent concentration of charging points in particular regions.
26Subsidies for private charging stations will be suspended at the end of 2019.
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IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Vehicle policies
In April 2018, the US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) announced a review of the GHG emissions standards for new LDVs sold in the United States between 2022 and 2025 (IEA, 2018a). The information released for comment proposed a freeze of the GHG emissions standards for vehicles sold between 2021 and 2026 (US EPA, 2018). A group of 20 states, led by California,27 has challenged the administration proposal as unlawful and suggested litigation if federal regulators move forward with the freeze (Shephardson, 2019). Despite calls to revisit the fuel economy regulations in the form that preceded the change, the Auto Alliance, whose members produce more than 70% of cars and light-duty trucks in the United States, expressed support for continued improvements in fuel economy rather than a freeze (Shepardson, 2017; Automotive News, 2016). Auto Alliance indicated a clear preference for a single regulatory environment rather than a split system, calling for a negotiated compromise between the federal administration and the state of California (Auto Alliance, 2018).
Charging infrastructure
The United States is among the countries that have ramped up their ambition to install fast charging facilities along highways (IEA, 2018a). Our 2018 analysis also noted that California had boosted its infrastructure deployment target for 2025, along with its 2030 target of 5 million EVs. California’s Executive Order B-48-18 includes a proposal to invest USD 900 million to deploy 250 000 charging points by 2025, of which around 10 000 outlets should be DC fast chargers (Electrify America, 2019; State of California, 2018).28 Various other states are augmenting financial commitments for charging infrastructure, mostly through electric utilities. New Jersey, California and New York announced investments totalling nearly USD 1.3 billion, adding more than 50% to the existing government-driven investment in the United States so far (Bloomberg, 2018a). Combined with previous announcements through Electrify America (USD 2 billion), Maryland (USD 104 million) and Massachusetts (USD 45 million), the total announced investments add up to almost USD 3.5 billion between 2017 and 2027 (Electrify America, 2019; The National Law Forum, 2018). Overall, more than half of the state-level administrations in the United States had EVSE incentives in place in 2018 (AFDC, 2019b).
Industrial policy
The United States has a long history of funding battery R&D. The US Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) supports a variety of work to lower the cost and increase the convenience of EVs by collaborating with national laboratories and industry to improve batteries and electric drive systems. An example is VTO’s Batteries, Charging and Electric Vehicles Program, which supports R&D and aims to: reduce the cost of EV batteries to less than USD 100/kWh and ultimately to USD 80/kWh; increase the range of EVs to 300 miles; and decrease charging time to 15 minutes or less (US Government, 2019a). In February 2019, the Argonne National Laboratory announced the opening of a battery recycling centre to reclaim and recycle critical materials (e.g. cobalt and lithium) (US Government, 2019b).
27California was granted a waiver by the EPA to implement its own GHG emissions standards in 2009 (US EPA, 2009) and is subject to a proposal by the federal administration to strip its ability to do so. California has announced its intention to maintain the more stringent rules even if federal standards are rolled back (Davenport and Hiroko, 2018). However, the federal government is considering a withdrawal of the waiver (NHTSA, 2018).
28California also aims to deploy 200 hydrogen stations by 2025.
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IEA. All rights reserved.