Global EV Outlook 2019 3. Outlook

Notes: The Clean Vehicles Directive sets a minimum sale share for each European Union member state, while the range in this table is the EU range. Half of the target has to be fulfilled by zero-emissions buses (BEVs and FCEVs).

(a)Countries that joined the EV30@30 Campaign set a collective aspirational goal to reach 30% sales share for EVs across PLDVs, LCVs, buses and trucks by 2030 (CEM-EVI, 2018).

(b)Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles.

Global results

In the New Policies Scenario, the global EV stock (excluding two/three-wheelers) exceeds 55 million vehicles in 2025 and reaches about 135 million vehicles in 2030 (Figure 3.2), with an average year-on-year compound annual growth rate of 30% over the projection period. Global EV sales (excluding two/three-wheelers) reach 12 million in 2025 and nearly 23 million in 2030 in the New Policies Scenario, increasing on average by 21% per year. The projected EV sales correspond to 9% and 15% of all vehicle sales (excluding two/three-wheelers) in 2025 and 2030.

The EV30@30 Scenario projects global EV stock and sales that in 2030 are nearly double the projections in the New Policies Scenario. In the EV30@30 Scenario, the global EV stock exceeds

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250 million vehicles in 2030 (Figure 3.2), when sales reach 43 million. In this scenario, it is assumed that all countries rapidly implement policy measures that promote the adoption of EVs such that by 2030 EVs slightly exceed a 30% EV share in the global vehicle market (excluding two/three-wheelers).

Note: PLDVs = passenger light-duty vehicles; LCVs = light-commercial vehicles; BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid vehicle.

Source: IEA analysis developed with the IEA Mobility Model (IEA, 2019a).

In 2030, global EV sales reach 23 million and EV stock exceeds 130 million vehicles in the New Policies Scenario (excluding two/three-wheelers). In the EV30@30 Scenario, EV sales and stock nearly double by 2030: sales reach 43 million and the stock is larger than 250 million.

Two/three-wheelers

Electric two/three-wheelers will continue to be the largest EV fleet among all modes. The size of the global electric two/three-wheelers fleet in the New Policies Scenario increases from about 300 million in 2018 to nearly 450 million in 2030, with a share of 39% in 2030 in the total stock. Sales of electric two/three-wheelers increase from about 26 million today to 46 million in 2030, when they account for more than half of all sales.

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In the EV30@30 Scenario, the global electric two/three-wheelers stock is roughly a fourth higher than in the New Policies Scenario in 2030, at nearly 560 million units. Sales of electric two/three-wheelers approach 61 million in the same year.

The strong electrification of two-wheelers envisioned in both scenarios is expected to result from the combination of the following characteristics:

•Energy requirements per kilometre (km) are lower than in any other mode.

•Daily trip distances that are limited by the usage profile of two-wheelers (mostly for urban movements and short distances).

•Ease of charging with conventional level 1 plugs (especially for removable battery packs) and at off-peak times of power supply (e.g. overnight).

•Possibility to benefit from battery cost reductions that result from the increasing adoption of EVs in other modes.

The small size of two-wheeler battery packs also explains why there is very limited availability of PHEV powertrains in this mode. The large majority of the two-wheeler fleet continues to be concentrated in emerging economies, especially in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Light-duty vehicles

The fleet of electric LDVs (including passenger light-dulty vehicles [PLDVs] and lightcommercial vehicles [LCVs]) is the second-largest after two/three-wheelers, accounting for more than 95% of the EV stock across all other modes (excluding two/three-wheelers) throughout the projection period in both scenarios. This does not depend only on the rate of electrification projected for LDVs, but also on the predominance of LDVs in the total vehicle fleet.

In the New Policies Scenario, the electric LDV fleet reaches nearly 52 million vehicles in 2025 129 million vehicles in 2030, up from 5.4 million in 2018. Globally, the stock shares of electric LDVs increase from below 1% in 2018 to 7% in 2030. Sales of electric LDVs rise from 2.1 million in 2018 to almost 12 million in 2025 (a market share of 9%) and 22 million in 2030 (15% market share). Over the period to 2030, EV sales in LDVs rise at an average year-on-year rate of 32%. Sales initially lean towards BEVs (about 70% in 2018), mostly due to the fact that China – the largest EV market worldwide – has remarkably high adoption of BEVs. In the longer term, the balance between BEVs and PHEVs shifts towards a slightly higher share of PHEVs, about 36% of all EV sales in 2030. This is due to the bigger popularity of PHEVs in the large vehicle segments, especially for consumers that have long driving range requirements. (Electric car models available in 2018 and announced models are shown in Chapter 2, Figure 2.1)

The evolution of BEV and PHEV shares is a challenging point. The policy environment certainly has strong capacity to influence consumer choices, as do marketing strategies. For example, BEVs are more popular in countries that use differentiated taxation measures related to zero tailpipe emissions (rather than both lowand zero-emissions vehicles), and the consumer appeal of a BEV can be maximised by optimising the balance between price and driving range, depending on travel habits. Regional differences are related to driving behaviour (for example, higher average mileage for LDVs in North America relative to Asia and Europe) and the availability of electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), especially for long-distance trips.

In the EV30@30 Scenario, around 110 million more electric LDVs are projected to be on the road in 2030 relative to the New Policies Scenario. This corresponds to a stock share of 15% in

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2030. This is the result of faster EV deployment that achieves and slightly exceeds the EV30@30 Campaign ambition to reach a 30% market share by 2030, combined with policies that help manage travel demand, reduce trip distance and shift part of the passenger mobility to more efficient modes of transport,4 with the consequence of reducing the growth of LDV stocks.5

In the EV30@30 Scenario, electric LDV sales exceed 41 million in 2030 (a 33% market share, needed to compensate for a lower than 30% EV market share in buses and trucks). BEVs have a larger presence in the electric LDV fleet reflecting the emphasis on energy efficiency, energy diversification, and pollutant and GHG emissions reductions in this scenario. For the same reasons, PHEVs rely more on their electric powertrain than in the New Policies Scenario.

Box 3.1. Electric LDV sales projections compared with manufacturer announcements

The cumulative EV sales estimated from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) announcements range from 10-15 million in 2020 and 44-95 million in 2025. These estimates are based on the OEMs declarations on absolute sales, announced percentage targets and models roll out (summarised in Chapter 2, Table 2.11). The estimates reflect more specificity in the next five years and blend into a range of values in the period to 2025 related to interpretations of the OEM announcements for the longer term. As illustrated, the estimated cumulative sales align closely with the stock projections of the New Policies Scenario in 2020 and lie between the projections of the New Polices Scenario and the EV30@30 Scenario in the 2025 time frame.

Projected global EV stock compared with OEM targets (2020-25)

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Notes: The cumulative sales shown in this figure are based on the OEMs announcements (Chapter 2, Table 2.11), interpolating between current sales and the OEM estimated targets. This assessment has been developed estimating first a number of EVs deployed by OEM in a target year and then extrapolating these values for the following years using a range of assumptions.

The number of electric vehicles deployed by each OEM in the target year is calculated taking into account three possible inputs: i) an absolute target value of EV sales given by an OEM; ii) a target value expressed in terms of models deployed in a given year; or iii) a

4How the role of rail in global transport might be elevated as a means to reduce the energy use and environmental impacts of transport services is explored in The Future of Rail (IEA, 2019b).

5In the EV30@30, the LDV stock is 7% lower than in the New Policies Scenario in 2030.

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