Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development
A key step in the policy process to advance electric mobility is the establishment of standards, particularly for vehicle safety and charging infrastructure. Appropriate standards significantly reduce investment risks for the stakeholders that are integral to provide resources in the transition to expand electric mobility. Electric vehicle (EV) deployment targets, and, in some cases, bans on the sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, are set out in public policy statements. Standards can be developed in parallel and support specific policy instruments. For example, public procurement programmes for zero-emission vehicles provide stimulus to underpin a nascent EV market, both in terms of vehicles and charging infrastructure. Since electric cars are still more expensive than ICE and hybrid models, purchase incentives often accompany initial public procurement plans to help drive the EV uptake in the private sector (both for fleets and individual vehicles).1 This is also relevant for the early deployment of chargers. Fiscal incentives are often coupled with regulatory measures that boost the value proposition of EVs, such as waivers to access restrictions, often grounded on better environmental performances with respect to local air pollution.
There are positive signs in the deployment of EVs. As highlighted in Chapter 1, the global stock of electric passenger cars reached 5.1 million in 2018, an increase of 62% from the previous year. This chapter considers developments that affect the outlook for electric mobility, highlighting some major EV markets and industry roll-out plans. It builds upon and updates our considerable analyses on the topic, most recently the Global EV Outlook 2018: Towards crossmodal electrification (IEA, 2018a) and the Nordic EV Outlook 2018: Insights from leaders in electric mobility (IEA, 2018b).
Today, frontrunners in the electric mobility transition such as the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) and the European Union are progressively transitioning policy approaches from purchase incentives for EVs (which remain in place) to zero-emissions vehicle mandates and/or regulatory requirements related to fuel economy, and pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent policy announcements in several of the largest vehicle markets include: a “new energy vehicle” credit mandate for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in China; incentives for EV production in the European Union’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emission standard for light-duty vehicles; and a target to reduce GHG emissions by 80% for vehicles produced by Japanese automakers by 2050.
1 In some countries steps have been taken to improve the profile of the incentives from an equity perspective by limiting their application to lowand medium-priced vehicles. For example, Canada announced a new incentive scheme of up to CDN 5 000 for electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that applies only to vehicles costing less than CDN 45 000 (Government of Canada, 2019a).There is a proposal in the Netherlands to limit direct purchase incentives for electric cars that cost less than EUR 6 000 (Euros) and incentives that reduce on a linear basis for EVs costing EUR 40 000-60 000 (Klimaatberaad, 2018). Germany has restricted incentives for EVs that cost less than EUR 60 000 (ACEA, 2019). In the United Kingdom, fully electric vehicles costing less than GBP 40 000 are exempt from the annual road tax (Government of the United Kingdom, 2019).
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IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Policies that aim to stimulate EV uptake are raising ambitions in public procurement programmes. This is especially the case for high-use vehicles which are able to offset the increased investment cost with lower fuel costs and improved fuel economy. A key example is the Clean Vehicles Directive that boosts minimum public procurement targets for clean vehicles in a recent agreement between the European Council and the European Parliament. For chargers, key regulatory measures include minimum requirements to ensure the “EV readiness” in new or refurbished buildings and parking lots (as in the case of the European Energy Performance Buildings Directive) and the deployment of publicly accessible chargers on highway networks and in cities.
In parallel, all the leading countries that have a large automotive industry are developing industrial policies that aim to stimulate and support EV innovation and battery research. For instance, the European Battery Alliance and a recent plan for a new era of automobiles of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) address strategic elements. These include: ensuring security of supply of critical materials; setting research goals for future battery performance; and accelerating research and innovation support for advanced (e.g. lithium-ion) and disruptive (e.g. solid state) technologies. In addition, they are fostering closer co-operation among industry, academia and the private sector, particularly in Japan with explicit references to co-operative approaches among industrial stakeholders.
Another positive indicator is that an increasing number of emerging economies are adopting polices to support the market uptake of EVs. Many of these markets depend on the import of second-hand EVs from advanced economies, where the EV fleet is broadening and increasing the pool of second-hand vehicles. In India, serious steps have been taken to incentivise the uptake of electric mobility by providing direct purchase subsidies. In Latin America, ministers in a number of countries are engaging in areas of common interest to progress electric mobility; several of these countries have started to incentivise and build their EV fleets.
The outcomes of these policy developments and decisions taken by major industrial stakeholders have important implications for the further uptake of EVs and the expansion of electric mobility. These dynamics are the focus of this chapter, which derive from analysis of four main components.
•At the outset, we update the development of electric mobility targets, including information on the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) membership and its EV30@30 Campaign. A brief update on announcements banning the sale of ICE vehicles is included.
•Second, it reviews recent policy updates, focusing on major global players, citing selected case studies and diving into policy developments regarding both vehicles (including batteries) and charging infrastructure.
•Third, it reviews recent announcements from industry stakeholders. For vehicles, we consider OEMs in the automotive industry and battery suppliers. For charging infrastructure, we consider actors in the private sector that are involved in power supply and charging infrastructure.
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IEA. All rights reserved.