- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace
- •Policies have major influences on the development of electric mobility
- •Technology advances are delivering substantial cost reductions for batteries
- •Strategic importance of the battery technology value chain is increasingly recognised
- •Other technology developments are contributing to cost cuts
- •Private sector response confirms escalating momentum for electric mobility
- •Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
- •Electric cars save more energy than they use
- •Electric mobility increases demand for raw materials
- •Managing change in the material supply chain
- •Safeguarding government revenue from transport taxation
- •New mobility modes have challenges and offer opportunities
- •References
- •Introduction
- •Electric Vehicles Initiative
- •EV 30@30 Campaign
- •Global EV Pilot City Programme
- •Scope, content and structure of the report
- •1. Status of electric mobility
- •Vehicle and charger deployment
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Stock
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Sales and market share
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Publicly accessible chargers
- •Small electric vehicles for urban transport
- •Stock and sales
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Low-speed electric vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Buses
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Trucks
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Other modes
- •Shipping
- •Aviation
- •Energy use and well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •Electricity demand and oil displacement
- •Well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •References
- •2. Prospects for electric mobility development
- •Electric mobility targets: Recent developments
- •Country-level targets
- •City-level targets
- •Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure
- •Charging standards
- •Hardware
- •Communication protocols
- •Supporting policies
- •Canada
- •China
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policies
- •European Union
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •India
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Japan
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •Korea
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •United States
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •Other countries
- •The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
- •Industry roll-out plans
- •Vehicles
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •References
- •3. Outlook
- •Scenario definitions
- •Electric vehicle projections
- •Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
- •Global results
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Regional insights
- •China
- •Europe
- •India
- •Japan
- •United States and Canada
- •Other countries
- •Implications for automotive batteries
- •Capacity of automotive batteries
- •Material demand for automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses
- •Publicly accessible chargers for LDVs
- •Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand
- •Electricity demand from EVs
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the New Policies Scenario
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario
- •Implications of electric mobility for GHG emissions
- •References
- •4. Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Context
- •Methodology
- •Key insights
- •Detailed assessment
- •Life-cycle GHG emissions: drivers and potential for emissions reduction
- •Effect of mileage on EV life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Effect of vehicle size and power on EV life-cycle emissions
- •Effect of power system and battery manufacturing emissions on EV life-cycle emissions
- •References
- •5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment
- •Vehicle and battery costs
- •Challenge
- •EV purchase prices are not yet competitive with ICE vehicles
- •Indications from the total cost of ownership analysis
- •Effect of recent battery cost reductions on the cost gap
- •Impacts of developments in 2018 on the total cost of ownership
- •Solutions
- •Battery cost reductions
- •Reducing EV costs with simpler and innovative design architectures
- •Adapting battery sizes to travel needs
- •Supply and value chain sustainability of battery materials
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Towards sustainable minerals sourcing via due diligence principles
- •Initiatives for better battery supply chain transparency and sustainable extractive activities
- •Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
- •Battery end-of-life management
- •Implications of electric mobility for power systems
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Potential for controlled EV charging to deliver grid services and participate in electricity markets
- •Enabling flexibility from EVs
- •Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
- •Government revenue from taxation
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Near-term options
- •Long-term solutions
- •Shared and automated mobility
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •References
- •Statistical annex
- •Electric car stock
- •New electric car sales
- •Market share of electric cars
- •Electric light commercial vehicles (LCV)
- •Electric vehicle supply equipment stock
- •References
- •Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
- •Table of contents
- •List of Figures
- •List of Boxes
- •List of Tables
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment |
Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
For the past few years, civil society was alerted through NGOs and media coverage of the adverse effects of some mining practices directly affecting the social and environmental sustainability of consumer goods, first consumer electronics and now (and increasingly in the future) electric vehicles.
Due diligence guidance has existed for about a decade, and high-level principles related to supply chain traceability and risk identification and mitigation have been brought into national and EU laws.36 These principles, in theory, are applicable to any supply chain, but there is a trend to increasingly adapt them to a specific value chain structures, such as the risks of battery materials, such as cobalt. Japan, for example, included cobalt as a strategic resource for the future battery industry in its “Well-to-wheel Zero Emissions” long-term plan to 2050 (Government of Japan, 2018).37
Currently, due diligence frameworks are only voluntary in the case of battery materials. Despite an increasing pool of private sector stakeholders abiding by the voluntary guidance principles, via the RMI for example, a gap clearly needs to be bridged between the level of requirements set by due diligence guidance and concrete requirements to reach full supply chain transparency and the proper identification of the various stakeholders along the chain to take concrete risk mitigation actions locally. In the specific case of cobalt, the DRC government developed a National Action Plan to improve working conditions at artisanal mining sites (LeCongolais, 2017) and the Congolese Mining Code was revised in March 2018 and it imposes an increase of the tax from 2% to 10% on metals considered as strategic by the government, including cobalt. (Government of the DRC, 2018; Delamarche, 2018). However, in the case of cobalt and other battery materials today, the implementation of many mitigation solutions at the mine level are only at pilot stage.
Overall, this suggests that some end-product manufacturers (battery producers and OEMs that are in direct contact with the EV customers) increasingly feel responsible for their supply chain to the mine level; increasing the sustainability of the supply chain requires this to be extended to a larger scale. Such actions could be supported and scaled up via binding regulatory frameworks that encourage international multi-stakeholder co-operation to address challenges related to the international span of mineral supply chains, so that effects are visible at the local community and local ecosystem levels.38
Battery end-of-life management
The fate of batteries at their end-of-life also has an impact on the sustainability of the material value chain. Different options (some of which can be combined) exist at the end-of-life of the battery as electricity storage on-board of the vehicle. They are broadly grounded on the reuse and recycle components of the wider 3R39 framework on waste prevention, as key alternatives
36As mentioned, these countries include the United States and a few African countries such as Rwanda and the DRC. The Conflict Minerals Regulation will be adopted in 2021 in the European Union and aims to ensure that EU companies import the 3TsG from responsible suppliers only (EC, 2017b).
37The plan states that the procurement of cobalt needs to be guaranteed and stabilised, referring notably to the need to address stockpiling issues.
38One example of such regulation is the loi sur le devoir de vigilance (duty of vigilance law) established in 2017 by the French government. It forces companies to establish and publish their strategies to identify and prevent environmental, human right abuses and corruption risks not only for their own work, but also on their suppliers and subsidiaries activities in France and abroad.
39Reduce, Reuse and Recycle. The 3R principles are guidance to help reducing the amount of waste generated.
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Global EV Outlook 2019 |
5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment |
to landfilling.40 Such end-of-life treatments fall within the circular economy, which ensures that products are kept in use. In terms of battery materials, it enables limiting shortage risks and the dependency on primary raw materials that could be related to potential risks depicted in the Table 5.1.
Reuse: EV batteries degrade over time and with use.41 Once the service they provide is no longer optimal for use in the vehicle sector, they can find useful purposes in other areas (Casals, et al, 2019). An often-mentioned solution is the use of an "old" EV battery as stationary storage (available capacity requirements are less of an issue than for a vehicle where it matters for driving range). A number of OEMs have announced efforts on such options, in order to maximise the economically viable lifetime of a single battery pack (the recovery of production costs therefore would be spread over the mobile battery lifetime and the stationary battery lifetime of the same pack) (Volvo Group, 2018a; FCA, 2017; Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance, 2018).42 In the European Union, the European Commission via the Innovation Deal developed a process to allow easier reuse of batteries for stationary purposes.43 It includes the assessment of the national and EU laws to determine whether some of them hinder the reuse of EV batteries (EC, 2018). Indeed, it is crucial that legislation on end-of-life management enables the use of batteries for secondary purposes.
Recycle: Recycling allows materials to be reinjected into the economy, lifting pressure to exclusively resort to new raw material extraction. Although it is unlikely that recycled materials in the short and medium term will supply a large share of the metal demand regarding the expected growth of EV sales and the time it takes for EV batteries to reach their end-of-life. However recycling could limit risks of material shortages and reduce dependency of consumer regions on supply chains associated with transparency issues and risks. Table 5.2 summarises the main recycling processes possible for batteries and their advantages and disadvantages.
A relevant example of co-operation of battery/auto manufacturers with material producers to enable increased recycling rates as well as material traceability is the case of Umicore and Audi, which are working on a closed-loop battery cycle. The objective is to both improve the recycling rate of the battery and create a closed-loop for the recycled metals. Under this initiative, laboratory tests showed that under optimised recycling processes, 95% of the cobalt, nickel and copper in batteries could be recovered. The objective is to attain such rates at an industrial scale (UMICORE, 2018).
As recycling processes have specific advantages and challenges, developing a cost-effective, environmentally respectful recycling method requires the close co-operation of governments and the transport sector to provide appropriate regulations to incentivise companies to recycle when it makes sense and that makes recycling economically viable. A number of initiatives, some of which take inspiration from the “extended producer responsibility approach” have
40Landfilling of non-recyclable materials or even of entire, non-recycled batteries, is the "last-resort" solution for batteries at end-of- life.
41The order of magnitude of a battery lifetime is eight to ten years [(Casals et al, (2019)].
42The battery packs, aggregated together into large stationary storage packs, would typically be used to absorb variable renewable energy to be able to redistribute it when called upon. Volvo, for instance, works with the City of Gothenburg in Sweden to reuse its batteries from electric buses for local energy storage for a building initiative called “Positive Footprint Housing”. So far, it has been on one building as a pilot test. It aims to study the potential lifetime extension of the battery and its role in facilitating residential energy management before further large-scale applications (Volvo Group, 2018b). Such projects can expand the lifetime of the battery up to an estimated ten years for the project (Volvo Group, 2018b).
43Innovation Deals are voluntary agreements that help to overcome barriers to innovation (EC, 2018).
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Global EV Outlook 2019 |
5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment |
started to be developed in major economies.44 They also generally address the upstream work on the battery design closely related to recycling as it facilitates the dismantling step of recycling.
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Table 5.2. |
Advantages and drawbacks of the main recycling processes suitable for EV batteries |
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Name of recycling |
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Description |
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Advantages |
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Drawbacks |
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process |
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Energy-intensive |
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Metals are recovered via |
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smelting. |
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Costly because of high |
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high temperature |
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energy use. |
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Pyrometallurgy |
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smelting. Separation |
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Easy implementation. |
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Production of harmful |
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done by |
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gases. |
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hydrometallurgy. |
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No recovery of |
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aluminium or lithium.* |
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Acids dissolve ions out of |
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the metallic battery parts |
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High consumption of |
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(nickel, cobalt, lithium) |
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Low energy process. |
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harmful chemicals (waste |
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into a solution from |
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Hydrometallurgy |
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High recovery rate of |
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acid sludge issues). |
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which each metal can be |
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battery materials. |
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Long process (chemical |
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recovered by |
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reactions). |
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precipitation or solvent |
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extraction. |
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Direct recycling
Biometallurgy
Use of physical processes such as gravity separation of shredded battery materials.
Hydrometallurgy based on microbial activity to separate ions.
Low energy process.
Low energy process. High recovery rate of battery materials.
Easily manageable temperature and pressure requirements.
Does not permit recovery of each cathode material separately.
Long process (chemical reactions relying on microbial activity). Requires bacteria culture.
* Recovery of these metals is possible through hydrometallurgy, but it is not economically viable.
Notes: Before each process (excluding pyrometallurgy), the battery is disassembled. This first step allows recovery of some metals such as copper and aluminium. Then the battery (or the rest after dismantling) is shredded (can be included for pyrometallurgy). These processes can be combined to optimise recycling rates. The most widely used processes are currently pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy.
Sources: Gaines (2018); Zheng et al. (2018).
44 This is a policy approach under which producers are given significant responsibility, financial and/or physical, for the treatment or disposal of post-consumer products. Assigning such responsibility could in principle provide incentives to prevent waste at the source, promote product design for the environment and support the achievement of public recycling and material management goals.
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