- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace
- •Policies have major influences on the development of electric mobility
- •Technology advances are delivering substantial cost reductions for batteries
- •Strategic importance of the battery technology value chain is increasingly recognised
- •Other technology developments are contributing to cost cuts
- •Private sector response confirms escalating momentum for electric mobility
- •Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
- •Electric cars save more energy than they use
- •Electric mobility increases demand for raw materials
- •Managing change in the material supply chain
- •Safeguarding government revenue from transport taxation
- •New mobility modes have challenges and offer opportunities
- •References
- •Introduction
- •Electric Vehicles Initiative
- •EV 30@30 Campaign
- •Global EV Pilot City Programme
- •Scope, content and structure of the report
- •1. Status of electric mobility
- •Vehicle and charger deployment
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Stock
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Sales and market share
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Publicly accessible chargers
- •Small electric vehicles for urban transport
- •Stock and sales
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Low-speed electric vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Buses
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Trucks
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Other modes
- •Shipping
- •Aviation
- •Energy use and well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •Electricity demand and oil displacement
- •Well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •References
- •2. Prospects for electric mobility development
- •Electric mobility targets: Recent developments
- •Country-level targets
- •City-level targets
- •Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure
- •Charging standards
- •Hardware
- •Communication protocols
- •Supporting policies
- •Canada
- •China
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policies
- •European Union
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •India
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Japan
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •Korea
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •United States
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •Other countries
- •The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
- •Industry roll-out plans
- •Vehicles
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •References
- •3. Outlook
- •Scenario definitions
- •Electric vehicle projections
- •Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
- •Global results
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Regional insights
- •China
- •Europe
- •India
- •Japan
- •United States and Canada
- •Other countries
- •Implications for automotive batteries
- •Capacity of automotive batteries
- •Material demand for automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses
- •Publicly accessible chargers for LDVs
- •Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand
- •Electricity demand from EVs
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the New Policies Scenario
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario
- •Implications of electric mobility for GHG emissions
- •References
- •4. Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Context
- •Methodology
- •Key insights
- •Detailed assessment
- •Life-cycle GHG emissions: drivers and potential for emissions reduction
- •Effect of mileage on EV life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Effect of vehicle size and power on EV life-cycle emissions
- •Effect of power system and battery manufacturing emissions on EV life-cycle emissions
- •References
- •5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment
- •Vehicle and battery costs
- •Challenge
- •EV purchase prices are not yet competitive with ICE vehicles
- •Indications from the total cost of ownership analysis
- •Effect of recent battery cost reductions on the cost gap
- •Impacts of developments in 2018 on the total cost of ownership
- •Solutions
- •Battery cost reductions
- •Reducing EV costs with simpler and innovative design architectures
- •Adapting battery sizes to travel needs
- •Supply and value chain sustainability of battery materials
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Towards sustainable minerals sourcing via due diligence principles
- •Initiatives for better battery supply chain transparency and sustainable extractive activities
- •Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
- •Battery end-of-life management
- •Implications of electric mobility for power systems
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Potential for controlled EV charging to deliver grid services and participate in electricity markets
- •Enabling flexibility from EVs
- •Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
- •Government revenue from taxation
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Near-term options
- •Long-term solutions
- •Shared and automated mobility
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •References
- •Statistical annex
- •Electric car stock
- •New electric car sales
- •Market share of electric cars
- •Electric light commercial vehicles (LCV)
- •Electric vehicle supply equipment stock
- •References
- •Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
- •Table of contents
- •List of Figures
- •List of Boxes
- •List of Tables
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
2. Prospects for electric mobility development |
Communication protocols
There are differences in communication methods of the various charging protocols. Protocols rely on different physical connections and there is little scope to make these approaches compatible (IEA, 2018a). Basic charging requirements for nearly all chargers are described in the IEC 61851-1 standard (IEC, 2017). Level 1, level 2 and Tesla AC connectors have no direct communication in their cables and require off-board controls for authentication, payment and smart charging, such as via an app (ElaadNL, 2017). Level 3 AC chargers have basic signalling that only regulate the charging speed, thus requiring external controls for communication as well. In the case of DC fast chargers, CCS connectors are coupled with power line communication (PLC) protocols, while CHAdeMO, Tesla and GB/T use controller area network (CAN) communication (IEA, 2018a). The recent ISO/IEC 15118 protocol provides more functionality to enable vehicle-to-grid (V2G) communication and was added to the CCS protocol in 2018, whereas for AC charging the car manufacturer has to implement this from the vehicle perspective (CharIN, 2018c) (see Chapter 5, Implications of electric mobility for power systems). The option for V2G communication has been part of the CHAdeMO protocol for several years (CHAdeMO, 2019).
The use of the CAN communication, which mandates a minimum for peripheral communication (e.g. authentication, verification and payment) in DC charging, places less emphasis on the vehicle and more emphasis on the charger, which is effectively the master for any additional (and more complex) communication (for example those that govern smart charging practices and require communication with the power supplier). This has the implicit consequence of giving greater relevance to the role of the charging point operator (as opposed to the vehicle) and it appears consistent with the prominent role of TEPCO (a major utility in Japan and a supporter of the EV30@30 Campaign) in the development of the standard (Anegawa, 2010). Similarly, the use of the more complex PLC protocol in the CCS standard places more emphasis on the role of the vehicle (which is the master for more complex communications), but the latest version of the standard also provides that the master role can go to the charging point operator. This is consistent with the strong engagement of the car industry in the CharIN consortium (CharIn, 2019c), the main proponent of the CCS specifications.
The recent developments of different adapters (conversion device between standards) between charging standards (and therefore also the capacity for EVs to handle the related communication protocols) show that the issue of the double standardisation currently in place and the related differences on communication protocols (CAN versus PLC) can be overcome. Even if this does come at a net cost (which could be avoided if multiple standards converge into one standard), recent developments, (e.g. Tesla case), indicate that costs for facilitating the increase in flexibility to use multiple chargers are manageable.
Supporting policies
Many policy developments in 2018 and 2019 support the uptake of EVs and the roll-out of charging infrastructure. They will have varying levels of impact on the EV market. Some key regions cover all policy types for EV uptake and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), whereas others focus on specific measures (Table 1). This section also provides updates detailed by country.
PAGE | 66
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 2. Prospects for electric mobility development
Table 2.3. |
Update of EV deployment policies in selected regions, 2018/19 |
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Canada |
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China |
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European |
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India |
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Japan |
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United |
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Union |
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Regulations |
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ZEV mandate |
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(vehicles) |
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Fuel economy |
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standards |
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Incentives |
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Fiscal |
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(vehicles) |
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incentives |
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Targets |
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Industrial |
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Subsidy |
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policies |
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Hardware |
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Regulations |
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standards** |
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(chargers) |
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Building |
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regulations |
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Incentives |
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Fiscal |
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incentives |
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Targets |
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*Indicates that it is only implemented at state/local level.
** All countries/regions in the table have developed fundamental standards for electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). Some (China, European Union, India) mandate specific minimum standards, while Canada, Japan and United States do not.
Notes: A check indicates that the policy is set at national level. Hardware standards are described in Table 2.2. Building regulations means an obligation to install chargers in new and renovated buildings. Charger incentives include direct investment and purchase incentives for public and private charging.
Canada
The key policy updates that are expected to drive the transition to electric mobility in Canada are summarised in Table 2.4.
Table 2.4. Overview of EV and EVSE policies in Canada, 2018/19
Country |
Policy type |
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Incentive |
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Targets |
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Canada |
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Industrial |
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policy |
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Incentives |
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Target |
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Description
Purchase incentive for ZEV available to individuals and businesses.
Federal government aims for ZEVs to be 10% of new passenger light-duty vehicle sales by 2025, 30% by 2030 and 100% by 2040.
Incentives to OEMs for providing ZEVs on the Canadian car market.
Incentives to support EVSE deployment.
900 new fast chargers.
PAGE | 67
IEA. All rights reserved.