- •Abstract
- •Acknowledgements
- •Highlights
- •Executive summary
- •Findings and recommendations
- •Electric mobility is developing at a rapid pace
- •Policies have major influences on the development of electric mobility
- •Technology advances are delivering substantial cost reductions for batteries
- •Strategic importance of the battery technology value chain is increasingly recognised
- •Other technology developments are contributing to cost cuts
- •Private sector response confirms escalating momentum for electric mobility
- •Outlooks indicate a rising tide of electric vehicles
- •Electric cars save more energy than they use
- •Electric mobility increases demand for raw materials
- •Managing change in the material supply chain
- •Safeguarding government revenue from transport taxation
- •New mobility modes have challenges and offer opportunities
- •References
- •Introduction
- •Electric Vehicles Initiative
- •EV 30@30 Campaign
- •Global EV Pilot City Programme
- •Scope, content and structure of the report
- •1. Status of electric mobility
- •Vehicle and charger deployment
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Stock
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Sales and market share
- •Cars
- •Light-commercial vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Publicly accessible chargers
- •Small electric vehicles for urban transport
- •Stock and sales
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Low-speed electric vehicles
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Buses
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Trucks
- •Stock and sales
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Other modes
- •Shipping
- •Aviation
- •Energy use and well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •Electricity demand and oil displacement
- •Well-to-wheel GHG emissions
- •References
- •2. Prospects for electric mobility development
- •Electric mobility targets: Recent developments
- •Country-level targets
- •City-level targets
- •Policy updates: Vehicles and charging infrastructure
- •Charging standards
- •Hardware
- •Communication protocols
- •Supporting policies
- •Canada
- •China
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policies
- •European Union
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •India
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Japan
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure policies
- •Industrial policy
- •Korea
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •United States
- •Vehicle policies
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Industrial policy
- •Other countries
- •The emergence of a Global Electric Mobility Programme
- •Industry roll-out plans
- •Vehicles
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •References
- •3. Outlook
- •Scenario definitions
- •Electric vehicle projections
- •Policy context for the New Policies Scenario
- •Global results
- •Two/three-wheelers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Trucks
- •Regional insights
- •China
- •Europe
- •India
- •Japan
- •United States and Canada
- •Other countries
- •Implications for automotive batteries
- •Capacity of automotive batteries
- •Material demand for automotive batteries
- •Charging infrastructure
- •Private chargers
- •Light-duty vehicles
- •Buses
- •Private charging infrastructure for LDVs and buses
- •Publicly accessible chargers for LDVs
- •Impacts of electric mobility on energy demand
- •Electricity demand from EVs
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the New Policies Scenario
- •Structure of electricity demand for EVs in the EV30@30 Scenario
- •Implications of electric mobility for GHG emissions
- •References
- •4. Electric vehicle life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Context
- •Methodology
- •Key insights
- •Detailed assessment
- •Life-cycle GHG emissions: drivers and potential for emissions reduction
- •Effect of mileage on EV life-cycle GHG emissions
- •Effect of vehicle size and power on EV life-cycle emissions
- •Effect of power system and battery manufacturing emissions on EV life-cycle emissions
- •References
- •5. Challenges and solutions for EV deployment
- •Vehicle and battery costs
- •Challenge
- •EV purchase prices are not yet competitive with ICE vehicles
- •Indications from the total cost of ownership analysis
- •Effect of recent battery cost reductions on the cost gap
- •Impacts of developments in 2018 on the total cost of ownership
- •Solutions
- •Battery cost reductions
- •Reducing EV costs with simpler and innovative design architectures
- •Adapting battery sizes to travel needs
- •Supply and value chain sustainability of battery materials
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Towards sustainable minerals sourcing via due diligence principles
- •Initiatives for better battery supply chain transparency and sustainable extractive activities
- •Bridging the gap between due diligence principles and on-the-ground actions
- •Battery end-of-life management
- •Implications of electric mobility for power systems
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Potential for controlled EV charging to deliver grid services and participate in electricity markets
- •Enabling flexibility from EVs
- •Importance of policy actions to enable EV participation in markets
- •Government revenue from taxation
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •Near-term options
- •Long-term solutions
- •Shared and automated mobility
- •Challenges
- •Solutions
- •References
- •Statistical annex
- •Electric car stock
- •New electric car sales
- •Market share of electric cars
- •Electric light commercial vehicles (LCV)
- •Electric vehicle supply equipment stock
- •References
- •Acronyms, abbreviations and units of measure
- •Acronyms and abbreviations
- •Units of measure
- •Table of contents
- •List of Figures
- •List of Boxes
- •List of Tables
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
1. Status of electric mobility |
exempts them from some registration requirements. The fleet size is estimated to exceed 5 million vehicles.28 LSEV sales numbers in China reached 695 900 in 2018, only a slight increase from the previous year (D1EV, 2019). Recent policies tighten regulations to contain further market growth. In November 2018, the government temporarily banned further increases of production capacity for LSEVs due to road safety concerns (Government of China, 2018). Future developments will be managed according to national regulations which aim to limit further market expansion. Some manufacturers in China have responded to stricter regulation on LSEVs by increasing production of very small electric passenger cars, for which the electric market share increased from 39% in 2016 to 90% in 2018. This is the smallest passenger car segment subject to regular road regulations and registration requirements.
Charging infrastructure
Small-size electric vehicles (two/three-wheelers, LSEVs and foot scooters) generally do not have access to dedicated charging infrastructure. Personal vehicles often charge at residential buildings from regular power outlets, some via extension cords. Small battery home charging stations are used for models with portable batteries. Free-floating shared electric fleets use various approaches. For example, operator Coup exchanges discharged batteries of its freefloating shared fleets and recharges in central depots (Greis, 2018).29 A number of operators of shared electric foot scooters (Box 1. 3) pay users to collect scooters with low battery levels and to charge them at home, co-ordinated through the user app (Runnerstrom, 2018).
Buses
Stock and sales
The global stock of electric buses increased by 25% in 2018 relative to 2017, reaching about 460 000 vehicles. China accounts for 99% of the global market for electric buses.
In 2018, over 92 000 new electric buses were registered, down from 104 000 in 2017.30 Battery electric is the technology of choice accounting for 93% of new electric bus registrations.
Outside of China, about 900 electric buses were registered in 2018, mostly in Europe. Latin America had its first roll out with 200 electric buses in Chile and 40 in Ecuador. A tender for electric bus procurement was proffered in India under the FAME scheme (Box 1. 4). There are more than 300 electric buses in the United States (Reuters, 2017).
Charging infrastructure
Infrastructure dedicated to electric buses reached an estimated 157 000 chargers in 2018. Most are in China with 153 000 chargers, where the number increased by 25% from 2017. Electric bus chargers in Europe in 2018 reached 3 000. In China, the number of bus chargers does not only stand out in comparison with any other country, but it also exceeds the level of publicly available fast chargers for passenger cars (Figure 1.5). The similar magnitude of
28This estimate is based on cumulative sales.
29Gogoro, the manufacturer of Coup’s electric two-wheelers, operates the largest network of battery swapping stations in Chinese Taipei. Drivers of 123 000 Gogoro two-wheelers in this market can exchange discharged batteries at 1 000 charging stations (See Chapter 2, Industry roll-out plans).
30This report refers to “battery electric bus” as “electric bus” and the scope excludes electric trolley buses.
PAGE | 44
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
1. Status of electric mobility |
fast chargers for buses and cars in China, a country where even the fast charger to electric car ratio tends to be high, illustrates that buses currently have very significant relevance in the market development of fast chargers.
Figure 1.5. Dedicated bus chargers and publicly accessible fast chargers by country, 2018
(thousands) |
160 |
|
|
|
|
(thousands) |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
140 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
fast chargers |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
120 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Publicly accessible |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
chargers |
100 |
|
|
|
|
chargers |
1.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
of |
60 |
|
|
|
|
of |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bus chargers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
Number |
20 |
|
|
|
|
Number |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
40 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
China |
|
|
United |
Germany |
Netherlands |
France |
Chile |
Sweden |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kingdom |
||||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Notes: In China, the bus fleet is mostly based on depot charging. Shenzhen has approximately one charger per three buses (Lu, Lulu and Zhou, 2018). In other regions, the ratio is closer to one charger per bus.
Sources: IEA estimate based on country submissions, complemented by Chinabaogao (2019) and EAFO (2019).
Bus chargers are an important driver of the global deployment of fast chargers. In China, which had 153 000 bus chargers in 2o18, dedicated fast chargers for buses exceed the number of publicly accessible fast chargers.
Table 1.2. |
Charging regimes of selected electric bus operations |
|
|
|
|
|||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
City |
|
|
|
Number of vehicles |
|
OEM |
|
|
Charging regime |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overnight depot |
|
|
|
Santiago de Chile, Chile |
|
|
100 |
|
BYD |
|
|
charging with 100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
chargers. |
|
|
|
Santiago de Chile, Chile |
100 |
|
Yutong |
|
Charging at terminal. |
|||||
|
|
Indore, India |
|
|
|
40 |
|
Tata Motor Limited |
|
|
2 chargers along route. |
|
|
|
Kolkata, India |
40 |
|
Tata Motor Limited |
|
40 chargers. |
|||||
|
|
Leiden, Netherlands |
|
|
23 |
|
Volvo |
|
|
Charging at terminal. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nottingham |
|
|
45 |
|
Optare |
|
|
Charging at terminal |
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
and depot. |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
Paris |
|
|
|
23 |
|
Bluebus |
|
|
Overnight depot |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
charging. |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Charging at terminal |
|
|
|
Schiphol Airport, Netherlands |
100 |
|
VDL |
|
|
(450 kW) and overnight |
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
depot charging (30 kW). |
|
|
|
Shenzhen, China |
|
|
>16 000 |
|
BYD, Nanjing |
|
|
Mostly overnight depot |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Golden Dragon |
|
|
charging. |
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Notes: This table includes a selection of recent electric bus projects with at least 20 vehicles. Depots provide parking during nonoperating hours while terminals are larger bus stations (e.g. end-of-line station).
Sources: Shenzhen Bus Group (2019); Royal Schipol Group (2019); UITP (2018) and Singh (2019) for Kolkata and Indore, Morris (2018) for Leiden, ZeEUS (2017) for Nottingham and Paris.
PAGE | 45
IEA. All rights reserved.
Global EV Outlook 2019 |
1. Status of electric mobility |
The global electric bus fleet is supplied with electricity by chargers located in depots and/or at the end of the bus routes. Depot charging is the common regime in major electric bus operations in China, for instance in the city of Shenzhen, where more than 16 000 electric buses circulate (IEA, 2018a). Recent expansions of bus fleets in Europe and Latin America use depot charging or a combination of depot charging and fast charging along routes (Table 1.2). A review in more than 90 European cities which together account for almost 750 electric buses shows that about 90% of electric buses uses overnight depot charging, however, almost all also use fast charging during operating hours, mostly pantograph charging (analysis based on ZeEUS, 2017).
Choices for charging regimes aim to optimise bus operations and costs, and are locationspecific to accommodate characteristics of the respective transport system as well as the regulatory regime. Off-peak electricity tariffs offer low fuel costs for overnight depot charging as well as no need to adjust operations or to train drivers for charging procedures. However, buses that use this charging method require larger batteries than buses that also charge during operating hours, which comes with higher battery costs and vehicle purchase prices. The development of battery costs may impact market trends for bus charging regimes, in which decreasing battery costs can drive the industry further to overnight charging at depots.
Box 1. 4. Major electric bus procurement schemes
Urban buses usually operate as a regulated public service. Licences to operate public bus transit are often granted through competitive tenders. Mandates to promote electrification of bus fleets from public transport agencies are influencing recent procurements and are often supplemented with subsidies for electric vehicles. A complementary market driver is the low fuel cost for electric buses, which can offer total cost of ownership (i.e. purchase and operating costs) that are lower than for diesel buses.31
Shenzhen and other cities in China
In the city of Shenzhen, 16 000 electric buses operate, the largest-scale electric bus transition observed in a city. The city government mandated operators to go electric. Operators received subsidies from both the national and municipal governments and completed the mandate by the end of 2017, one year ahead of schedule. Shenzhen-based manufacturer BYD delivered most of the electric buses. The systems uses depot charging augmented with fast charging on some routes. Other significant electric bus procurements in 2018 include orders for 4 000 electric buses for Guangzhou (Randall, 2018) and 200 double decker buses for Xi’an (Field, 2019a).
Schipol Airport and cities in the Netherlands
The introduction of 100 electric buses on routes in the Schiphol Airport area in the Netherlands represents the largest electric bus fleet procurement completed in Europe to date. The tender for
31 For further information, see Chapter 5, Figure 5.8 “Total cost of ownership gap between diesel and electric buses” in Global EV Outlook 2018 (IEA, 2018a).
PAGE | 46
IEA. All rights reserved.