7. Energy, environment and climate change

Key data

(2017)

GHG emissions without LULUCF*: 20.9 MtCO2-eq, +8.7% since 2005, -48.4% since 1990 GHG emissions with LULUCF*: 19.1 MtCO2-eq, +17.3% since 2005, -51.0% since 1990

CO intensity (TPES per GDP): 0.43 kgCO /USD GDP PPP (IEA average 0.24)

* Land use, land-use change and forestry.

Overview

Estonia is well on its way to meet its target for emissions outside the European Union (EU) Emission Trading system (ETS) for 2020 of limiting the increase of emissions by 11% compared to the 2005 level. In 2017, non-ETS emissions were 1.1% below the 2005 level. For 2030, Estonia is obligated for the first time to reduce its emissions, by 13% below the 2005 level, a much larger challenge that requires proactive and determined government policy.

In 2017, energy-related emissions accounted for 89% of Estonia’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (not including effects from land use), the highest share among IEA member countries. This is mostly due to its reliance on oil shale for much of its power and heat production.

Estonia’s emissions fell sharply in the early 1990s with the transition from a planned economy to a market economy. Since 1995, however, emissions have remained relatively stable at around 20 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (MtCO2-eq.) (Figure 7.1).

Heat and power generation accounts for three-quarters of energy-related emissions. The future use of oil shale will therefore determine how Estonia’s total emissions will develop (see Chapter 3). The transport sector is the second-largest emitting sector.

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7. ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Figure 7.2 Energy-related CO emissions by sector, 1990-2017

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Power and heat generation, heavily reliant on oil shale combustion, represents three-quarters of total energy-related CO2 emissions, and varies annually with electricity trade.

* Other energy includes emissions from coal mines and oil and gas extraction.

** Industry includes CO emissions from combustion at construction and manufacturing industries.

*** Commercial includes commercial and public services, agriculture/forestry, and fishing. Note: MtCO2 = million tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Source: IEA (2019), CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2019, www.iea.org/statistics.

Total CO2 emissions in a country are driven by population changes and economic development, measured as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Emissions are also affected by the energy intensity of the economy and carbon intensity of the energy supply. In Estonia, the effect from growth in the economy is partially offset by a slowly declining population and the energy intensity of the economy (Figure 7.3). From 2000 to 2017, GDP (in purchase power parity [PPP]) increased by 88%. Meanwhile, energyrelated CO2 emissions increased by 11%, although with large annual fluctuations.

Figure 7.3 Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers in Estonia, 2000-17

0.6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Despite substantial economic growth per capita, energy-related CO2 emissions have been stable, thanks to reduced energy intensity of the economy and a slightly declining population.

Notes: GDP = gross domestic product; TPES: total primary energy supply. Real GDP in USD 2010 prices and purchase power parity.

Source: IEA (2019), CO Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2019, www.iea.org/statistics.

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