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4. OIL

Figure 4.2 Domestic oil production, 2008-18

25

Thousand barrels per day (kb/d)

 

20

15

10

5

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Conventional crude oil*

Natural gas liquids*

Unconventional oils

Total

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Estonia’s oil production is entirely unconventional oil – shale oil from oil shale.

* Non-existent.

Source: IEA (2019b), Oil Information 2019, www.iea.org/statistics.

Trade: Imports and exports

As there are no refeneries in the country, Estonia does not import crude oil and relies entirely on imports, mostly diesel oil and motor gasoline, to meet its oil product demand. At the same time, the vast majority of shale oil production of Estonia is exported. In 2018, 99% of total shale oil produced in the country was exported, an increase on the 93% share in 2017, accounting for three-fifths of total oil exports. With the production level of shale oil soaring over the last decade, the country’s total oil import dependency1 fell from 73% to 24% in 2018 (Figure 4.3).

Figure 4.3 Estonia’s oil supply, demand and import dependency, 2008-18

 

35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

80%

 

 

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

70%

Domestic oil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(kb/d)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

60%

production

25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

day

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50%

Total oil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

per

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

40%

demand

barrels

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

30%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thousand

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(right hand

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Import

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20%

dependency

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10%

scale)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0%

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

 

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Estonia’s rising production and exports of shale oil over the past decade have reduced oil import dependency by half.

Source: IEA (2019b), Oil Information 2019, www.iea.org/statistics.

1 Import dependency = net imports ÷ total demand.

47

ENERGY SECURITY

4. OIL

Shale oil

Over the last decade, Estonia’s shale oil exports have increased by more than 250%, to reach 21.4 kb/d in 2018 (Figure 4.4). Estonia exports the majority of its shale oil to European countries, such as the Netherlands, Belgium and Latvia. Export destinations have become more diverse in recent years; in 2018, Saudi Arabia became the largest recipient of Estonian shale oil and accounted for 20% of the total, followed by the Netherlands with 18%, a sharp fall from 50% previously. The rest was exported to Denmark (7%); Belgium (6%); Latvia (4%); Singapore, Sweden and the United States (3% respectively); and others/unspecified (36%).

Figure 4.4 Estonia’s net shale oil exports per country, 2008-18

24

21

18

15

12

9

6

3

0

Thousand barrels per day (kb/d)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Others/unspecified

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Latvia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Egypt

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Singapore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saudi Arabia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

United States

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sweden

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Denmark

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Belgium

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Netherlands

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

 

 

 

 

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Estonia’s shale oil exports have increased in volumes and diversified in destination.

Source: IEA (2019b), Oil Information 2019, www.iea.org/statistics.

Oil products

Estonia is fully reliant on imports for refined oil products. Over the last decade, the level of its net imports of oil products has increased by 21%, to reach 26.4 kb/d in 2018. In the same year, the total volume of oil products imported to Estonia was 40.8 kb/d (Figure 4.5). While the total volume of imports has increased by 87% over the last decade, the import sources are still mostly confined to its neighbouring countries, like Lithuania, accounting for 45% of the total share in 2018, followed by the Russian Federation (26%), Finland (18%), the United Kingdom (2%) and others. By product type, gas/diesel oil accounts for the largest share of oil products imported, with a 42% share in 2018, followed by 29% for motor gasoline and 25% for fuel oil. Lithuania is the largest supplier of transport fuels, whereas fuel oil comes almost entirely from Russia.

Oil product imports have increased significantly since 2012, when Estonia began to reexport oil products; in 2018, Estonia re-exported 35% of the imported oil products (Figures 4.6). The United States and Canada have been major destination countries, with the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia becoming important trading countries in recent years. Similar to shale oil export trends, the increased variety of export destinations is notable; in 2017, Saudi Arabia and Singapore were added to the destination list for the first time and the portions of oil products delivered to Argentina and Nigeria increased visibly in 2018.

48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4. OIL

Figure 4.5 Estonia’s oil products imports per country, 2008-18

45

Thousand barrels per day (kb/d)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Others/unspecified

35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russia

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poland

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finland

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lithuania

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

 

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Although Estonia’s oil product imports continue to increase, the import sources are still largely limited to the Baltic region.

Note: Imports of final oil products are reported as coming from the country of last consignment. Source: IEA (2019b), Oil Information 2019, www.iea.org/statistics.

By fuel type, fuel oil exports accounted for about 48% of Estonia’s total oil products exports in 2018, and motor gasoline around 43%. Canada and the United States buy almost all of Estonia’s gasoline exports, whereas the Netherlands is the predominant recipient of its fuel oil, with some increasing volumes headed to Saudi Arabia and Singapore.

Figure 4.6 Estonia’s oil products exports per country, 2012-18

16

 

 

 

 

 

Others/unspecified

 

 

 

 

 

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina

 

 

 

 

 

 

12

 

 

 

 

 

Nigeria

10

 

 

 

 

 

Saudi Arabia

8

 

 

 

 

 

Netherlands

6

 

 

 

 

 

Denmark

4

 

 

 

 

 

Canada

2

 

 

 

 

 

United States

0

 

 

 

 

 

Total

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Estonia began re-exporting oil products in 2012 and their destinations have been greatly diversified since.

Source: IEA (2019b), Oil Information 2019, www.iea.org/statistics.

49

ENERGY SECURITY

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