Austerity won’t trigger double-dip recession, economists say

Graeme Wearden

George Osborne’s programme of spending cuts and tax rises will not push Britain into a double-dip recession, according to a poll of the UK’s top economists published today.

The Financial Times (FT) surveyed 78 economists from across academia and the business world, and found that only one firmly believes the British economy will contract during 2011. The findings will be seen a boost to the government, as it faces criticism for raising VAT (value added tax) to 20 % today.

However, many of those surveyed remained pessimistic about the state of the British and world economies, with inflation rising strongly at home and the sovereign debt crisis bubbling away overseas.

The FT survey found that most leading economists believe Osborne’s deficit-reduction programme will slow growth this year, but that the economy will continue to expand at a modest pace.

However, several of those surveyed did caution that a double-dip recession remained a possibility, as the government implements a wide-ranging fiscal tightening while the global economic crisis is still being played out.

Raising VAT from 17.5 % to 20 % will, the chancellor believes, raise around £13bn to help reduce Britain’s borrowings. The deficit for the current financial year is expected to hit £155bn.

Retailers have warned that the increased tax will hurt them badly.

After growing strongly earlier in 2010, the UK economy probably slowed in the last three months of last year – a trend expected to continue in 2011.

The Сhancellor may be forced to rethink his deficit-reduction plans if the economy falters. Osborne’s austerity cutbacks were cited by 34 economists as one of the top three risks to the UK economy in 2011. The top threat was the European sovereign debt crisis, amid ongoing concern over Portugal and Spain’s ability to cover their borrowings. Experts believe this will be a “make or break” year for the euro, with some predicting that the single currency will not survive the next decade.

High inflation was also a major concern, with the Consumer Prices Index expected to hit 4 % in the next few months. Nearly half of the economists suggested that the Bank of England was losing credibility, having missed its inflation target throughout 2010.

The Guardian, January 4, 2011

Task 14. Analyse the syntactical structure of the article headline. Compare it with the headline in Task 2.

Task 15. Below goes a list of special terms. Comment on their lexical structure, translate them into Russian.

1) deficit-reduction programme; 2) sovereign debt crisis; 3) tripple A rating; 4) Credit Rating Agency; 5) underlying rate of growth; 6) uncertain global economic environment; 7) Consumer Prices Index.

Task 16. Make lexical and syntactical analysis of the following fragment.

“… Those surveyed remained pessimistic about the state of the British and world economies, with inflation rising strongly at home and the sovereign debt crisis bubbling away overseas”.

Task 17. Listen to Audio Track 13. What is its idea?

Task 18. Listen to the track again and find English equivalents of the following Russian terms.

общее количество безработных	искать работу
пособие	занятость
численность безработных	экономический спад
рынок труда	центр занятости
статистические данные	число вакансий возросло
самый высокий уровень (безработицы)	уровень инфляции
трудоспособный возраст	доходы
экономически неактивный безработный	получать пособие по безработице

Task 19. Put the numbers in the box into the context of the report.

2,5m 3rd month 9,25 49,000

1992 16 to 24s 1m 1 in 4

Task 20. Listen to Audio Track 13 again and answer the questions.

1. What are the verbs and nouns used by the journalist to denote movement in the upward / downward direction?

2. Find all the clichés in the track and correlate them with their Russian equivalents.

3. Are there any colloquial words in the piece? If so, what are they?

4. Name all the realia in the piece.

5. Why is the report permeated with phrasal verbs? Identify them all and comment on their use.

6. What grammatical constructions did you come across in the report?

Task 21. Translate the following sentence into Russian, paying attention to the italicised words and word combinations.

“As the economy struggles to recover from the recession, the difficulties facing anyone looking for a job have been underlined by the latest unemployment figures.”

Task 22. Watch Videos 35.1 – 35.4. What genre are they? What news is it – soft or hard?

Be prepared to make lexical and grammatical analysis of the briefs.

Task 23. Study the terms in the box below, watch Video 35.1 again and fill in blanks in the script.

(bank) bail out quarterly results bond auctions

oil leak strength of the dollar zone debt

peripheral eurozone country

Task 24. Translate the brief in writing at home. Are there any clichés in the clip?

A. …(clip title)...

European …1… finished lower as concerns over the …2… …3… …4… dampened investors’ appetite for risk, ahead of a flurry government …5… …6… this week. They are also cautious while waiting to see white kind of …7… are revealed as US companies start reporting their …8-9…

Banks were the biggest losers due to their exposure to …10… …11… in …12… …13… countries.

Miners also lost ground as …14… prices were pressured by …15… …16… …17… . Speculation that Portugal may be the next eurozone member to need a …18… …19-20… , knocked the euro to a …21-23… against the dollar. It has …24-25… now but at one stage slipped to one dollar 28.60.

…26… is …27… after the trans Alaska …28… was shut because of a …29…

Task 25. Watch Video 35.2 and fill in the blanks in its script with special terms and grammatical constructions typical of TV discourse. Identify a cliché in the piece.

What is one off? What style of discourse is this lexical unit typical of?

I. (clip title) …… : ……..

Airbus has won the world’s biggest ever …1… …2… …3… – 180 …4… for Indian …5… …6… …7… Indigo.

Most are of …8… …9… version of Airbus’ …10… …11… A320, and the first …12-13… be …14… in four …15… time.

This gives Airbus a big …16… in its annual battle with its US …17… Boeing for …18… …19… . …20… in its …21… company EADS …22… …23… on news of the 12 bln euro …24…

II. (clip title) …: …

Not even …1… of Royal wedding …2… …3… help British …4… in November – the …5… …6… …7… rose to a …8… …9… during the month – a development that will raise further concerns about …10… …11… …12… …13… in the UK.

The …14… …15… was, though, mostly …16… …17… …18… of …19… and …20… , and analysts say that was probably a …21-22… event. …23… …24… also a sharp …25… in …26… …27…

III. (clip title) … : …

The price of …1… …2… …3… has been above …4… dollars a …5… for the first time in …6… months.

That comes amid …7… …8… …9… and growing …10… …11… .

A …12… …13… forced two Norwegian …14… …15… to close …16…

And over the weekend the …17… …18… …19… had to be shut because of a …20… , though it has since resumed …21… …22…

Task 26. Render the briefs in Video 35.2 into Russian (in class).

Task 27. Watch Video 35.3 and fill in the gaps with clichés, names and terms. Translate the brief in writing (at home).

(clip title) … …

The …1-2… says there are no discussions currently …3… …4… on an …5… …6… …7… …8… …9… of …10… . The …11… was responding to media reports of pressure from …12… , …13… and other countries for Portugal to ask for …14… …15… …16… …17… …18-21… . The …22-23… Angela Merkel also denied that her country was …24-26…

Task 28. Watch Video 35.4 and make its transcript. Name all the terms in the brief. What service industry do they relate to?

Task 29. Get prepared to write a lexical quiz on the terms you learned in Videos 35.1 – 35.4.

Task 30. Analyse files No 9-15 in the subfolder GRAMMAR. Write down grammatical features in question to discuss them in class.

Task 31. Read the following newspaper extract, and say what economic problems Ireland faces. What new economic terms and grammatical constructions does the piece contain?