Executive summary..................................................................................................................	8
Chapter 1. Ammonia production today................................................................................	14
Ammonia and society............................................................................................................	15
Nitrogen fertilisers: An indispensable input to our modern agricultural systems .....................	17
Demand, supply and trade .......................................................................................................	23
Ammonia production fundamentals ......................................................................................	26
Current and emerging production pathways ............................................................................	28
Economic considerations .........................................................................................................	39
Ammonia and the environment.............................................................................................	43
An energyand emissions-intensive sector .............................................................................	45
Non-CO2 environmental impacts..............................................................................................	47
What will happen tomorrow to today’s CO2 emissions from ammonia production? ................	56
Chapter 2. The future of ammonia production....................................................................	61
Three contrasting futures for the ammonia industry.............................................................	62
The outlook for demand and production...............................................................................	65
The outlook for nitrogen demand, nutrient use efficiency and material efficiency ...................	66
The outlook for production .......................................................................................................	78
Technology pathways towards net zero emissions ..............................................................	82
Energy consumption and CO2 emissions.................................................................................	82
A portfolio of mitigation options ................................................................................................	87
Innovative technology pathways ..............................................................................................	89
Considerations for the main innovative technologies ..............................................................	97
Readiness, competitiveness and investment .....................................................................	107
An array of technology options at differing levels of maturity ................................................	109
Exploring key uncertainties ....................................................................................................	117
Investment..............................................................................................................................	123
Chapter 3. Enabling more sustainable ammonia production..........................................	129
The current policy, innovation and financing landscape.....................................................	130
Ongoing efforts by governments............................................................................................	130
Encouraging progress in the private sector ...........................................................................	137
Initiatives involving financial institutions and investors ..........................................................	139
Recommendations for accelerating progress .....................................................................	141
Framework fundamentals.......................................................................................................	143
Targeted actions for specific technologies and strategies .....................................................	146
Necessary enabling conditions ..............................................................................................	153
Key milestones and decision points....................................................................................	158

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Ammonia Technology Roadmap	Table of contents
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production
Annexes.................................................................................................................................		161
Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................		161
Units of measure.................................................................................................................		162
List of figures
Fertiliser use and crop yield for wheat production ...................................................		20
Nitrogen fertiliser demand and application rate by crop...........................................		22
Apparent consumption and production of ammonia in 2019....................................		24
Mass flows in the ammonia supply chain from fossil fuel feedstocks to nitrogen
fertilisers and industrial products..............................................................................		27
Current and announced projects for near-zero-emission ammonia production.......		35
Simplified levelised cost of ammonia production for commercial and near-zero-
emission production routes in 2020 .........................................................................		40
Energy consumption for and emissions from ammonia production in context, 2020
..................................................................................................................................		46
Ranges of emission factors by fertiliser product for current process technology and
application practices.................................................................................................		52
Projected emissions from existing ammonia plants under different lifetime
assumptions .............................................................................................................		57
Geographic distribution and average age of ammonia production facilities in 2020 58
Direct CO2 emissions from the chemical sector and ammonia production by
scenario and region..................................................................................................		63
Nitrogen demand by market segment and per capita ..............................................		67
Nitrogen demand by final product by scenario.........................................................		70
Contribution of use and material efficiency to ammonia demand by scenario.........		74
Ammonia and urea production by region for Stated Policies Scenario and
Sustainable Development Scenario .........................................................................		79
Direct CO2 emissions and energy consumption for ammonia production by scenario
..................................................................................................................................		84
Ammonia direct CO2 emission reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario
by mitigation strategy ...............................................................................................		89
Global ammonia production by technology and scenario ........................................		91
Ammonia production by process route and scenario in major ammonia-producing
regions......................................................................................................................		92
Levelised cost of electrolytic ammonia production with VRE at nine key sites for a
range of storage cost assumptions ........................................................................		101
Simplified levelised cost of ammonia production via electrolysis for optimal mixes of
wind and solar PV in China in 2050 in the Sustainable Development Scenario....		103
Captured CO2 for storage and utilisation in the Sustainable Development Scenario
................................................................................................................................		106
CO2 emission reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by technology
maturity category....................................................................................................		117
Levelised cost of ammonia production pathways at varying gas, electricity and CO2
prices ......................................................................................................................		119
Ammonia production energy requirements and CO2 emission reductions in 2050 in
different technology contexts .................................................................................		122
Capital investment in process equipment for ammonia production by scenario....		124

A framework for accelerating the sustainable transition of the ammonia industry. 142

PAGE | 6

Ammonia Technology Roadmap		Table of contents
Towards more sustainable nitrogen fertiliser production
List of tables
	Key nitrogen fertilisers and their characteristics ......................................................		19
	Energy needs to produce one tonne of ammonia for each route using BAT ...........		33
	Parameters for low-cost VRE sites in 2020 and 2030 in the Sustainable
	Development Scenario ...........................................................................................		100
	Status of main near-zero-emission technologies in ammonia production .............		111
	Key current government policies and programmes that could enable progress
	towards sustainable ammonia production and use................................................		137
	Global ammonia industry technology milestone requirements for meeting the
	Sustainable Development Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario ..		160
List of boxes
Box 1.1	Scope of this technology roadmap...........................................................................		15
Box 1.2	Box 1.2 An overview of carbon capture, utilisation and storage ..............................		31
Box 1.3	Electrolysis-based ammonia production: Grid connection versus dedicated variable
	renewable energy capacity.......................................................................................		36
Box 1.4	What might a typical near-zero-emission ammonia plant look like in practice?.......		41
Box 1.5	Methane emissions from fossil fuel operations ........................................................		53
Box 2.1	Scenario definitions and the broader energy system context ..................................		64
Box 2.2	The potential use of ammonia as an energy carrier.................................................		71
Box 2.3	IEA demand projections for nitrogen fertilisers in context........................................		77
Box 2.4	Box 2.4 Technology modelling methodology ...........................................................		80
Box 2.5	Box 2.5 How are indirect CO2 emissions tackled?...................................................		86
Box 2.6	The TRL scale ........................................................................................................		107

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Table of contents

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