книги2 / 138

(GHOPDQ ( 5 )LW]*HUDOG *$ $GHFDGH RI 6FLHQFH 7UDQVODWLRQDO 0HGLFLQH 6FL 7UDQVO 0HG ±$SU ± 9RO ± Ɋ HDD[ GRL VFLWUDQVOPHG DD[

(IIHFWLYH &DUH IRU +LJK 1HHG 3DWLHQWV 2SSRUWXQLWLHV IRU ,PSURYLQJ 2XW FRPHV 9DOXH DQG +HDOWK HGV 3 /RQJ >HW DO @ ± :DVKLQJWRQ '& 1D WLRQDO$FDGHP\ RI 0HGLFLQH

(IIHFWLYHQHVV DQG HIILFLHQF\ RI JXLGHOLQH GLVVHPLQDWLRQ DQG LPSOH PHQWDWLRQ VWUDWHJLHV-*ULPVKDZ >HW DO @ +HDOWK 7HFKQRO$VVHVV ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ

(KUHWK-7KH JOREDO YDOXH RI YDFFLQDWLRQ 9DFFLQH ±-DQ ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL V [ 30,'

(0$&303 *XLGHOLQH RQLPPXQRJHQLFLW\ DVVHVVPHQWRI PRQRFORQDO DQWLERGLHV LQWHQGHG IRU LQ YLYR FOLQLFDO XVH (0$&+03 %0:3

(0$&303 *XLGHOLQH RQ VLPLODU ELRORJLFDO PHGLFLQDO SURG XFWV FRQWDLQLQJ PRQRFORQDO DQWLERGLHV (0$&+03 %0:3

(0($&303 *XLGHOLQH RQ VLPLODU ELRORJLFDO PHGLFLQDO SURGXFWV FRQWDLQLQJ ELRWHFKQRORJ\ GHULYHG SURWHLQV DV DFWLYH VXE VWDQFH QRQ FOLQLFDO DQG FOLQLFDO LVVXHV (0($&303

(XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO 6HFWRU ,QTXLU\ )LQDO 5HSRUW )DFW %UXVVHOV 6(& ± 85/ KWWSV ZZZ GHFKHUW FRP NQRZOHGJH RQSRLQW HXURSHDQ FRPPLV VLRQV ILQDO UHSRUW RQ SKDUPDFHXWLFDO VHFWRU LQTXL KWPO

171

(XURSHDQ-RXUQDORI&DQFHU Ɂɚɛɨɥɟɜɚɟɦɨɫɬɶɢɫɦɟɪɬ ɧɨɫɬɶ ɨɬ ɪɚɤɚ ɜ ȿɜɪɨɩɟ ɨɰɟɧɤɚ ɫɬɪɚɧ ɜ ɝ ± 85/ KWWS HFR LDUF IU

(XURSHDQ 0HGLFLQHV$JHQF\ 5HSO\ WR 3URI 6LOYLR *DUDWWLQL >HW DO @ ±-XQH ± 85/ KWWS ZZZ HPD HX URSD HX GRFV HQB*% GRFXPHQWBOLEUDU\ 2WKHU :& SGI

(YHQW D JOREDOSDQGHPLF H[HUFLVH>ZHEVLWH@ ±85/ KWWSV ZZZ FHQWHUIRUKHDOWKVHFXULW\ RUJ HYHQW DERXW $FFHVVHG

(YLGHQFH EDVHG PHGLFLQHV ZRUNLQJ JURXS :+2

(YLGHQFH LQIRUPHG FDSDFLW\ EXLOGLQJ IRU VHWWLQJ KHDOWK SULRULWLHV LQ ORZ DQG PLGGOH LQFRPH FRXQWULHV$IUDPHZRUN DQG UHFRPPHQGD WLRQV IRU IXUWKHU UHVHDUFK /L 5\DQ >HW DO @ ) 5HVHDUFK ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± 85/ KWWSV ZZZ QFEL QOP QLK JRY SPF DUWL FOHV 30& SGI I UHVHDUFK SGI

([RVRPH 7KHUDQRVWLFV %LRORJ\ DQG 7UDQVODWLRQDO 0HGLFLQH & +H >HW DO @ 7KHUDQRVWLFV ± -DQ ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL WKQR H&ROOHFWLRQ

([SORULQJ WKH$SSOLFDWLRQ RI &RVW (IIHFWLYHQHVV (YDOXDWLRQ LQ WKH-DSD QHVH 1DWLRQDO +HDOWK ,QVXUDQFH 6\VWHP + 2JXUD >HW DO @-7HFKQRO $VVHVV +HDOWK &DUH ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL 6 (SXE 0DU 30,'

172

)DFH\ . 7RSIHU /$ &KDQ / +HDOWKWHFKQRORJ\ DVVHVVPHQW +7$JORVVDU\ ± 6ZHGHQ ,1$+7$6HFUHWDULDW F R 6%8 6WRFN KROP

)HUUDULR$.DQDYRV 3 0DQDJHG HQWU\ DJUHHPHQWV IRU SKDUPDFHXWLFDOV WKH (XURSHDQ H[SHULHQFH %UXVVHOV %HOJLXP (0L1HW ± 85/ KWWS HSULQWV OVH DF XN BB/LEILOHBUHSRVLWRU\B&RQWHQWB)HU UDULR &$B)HUUDULRB0DQDJHGB HQWU\B DJUHH PHQWVB B)HUUDULRB0DQDJHGB HQWU\B DJUHHPHQWV B SGI

)RONHUVHQ-3HGHUVHQ 3+$WWLWXGHV WR WKH XVH RI D GHFLVLRQ VXSSRUW PHWKRG ZKHQ LQWURGXFLQJ QHZ PHGLFDO WHFKQRORJ\ DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ +RVSLWDO RI &RSHQKDJHQ 8JHVNU /DHJHU ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ±

)RRG 8 6 'UXJ$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ )UDPHZRUN IRU )'$V 5HDO :RUOG (YLGHQFH 3URJUDP 'HFHPEHU ± 85/ KWWSV ZZZ IGD JRY PHGLD GRZQORDG $FFHVVHG -XO\

)URP DGDSWLYH OLFHQVLQJ WR DGDSWLYH SDWKZD\V GHOLYHULQJ D IOH[LEOH OLIH VSDQ DSSURDFK WR EULQJ QHZ GUXJV WR SDWLHQWV + * (LFKOHU >HW DO @ &OLQ3KDUPDFRO7KHU ± ±9RO ±Ɋ± GRL FSW

)URP HIILFDF\ WR TXLW\ /LWHUDWXUH UHYLHZ RI GHFLVLRQ FULWHULD IRU UH VRXUFH DOORFDWLRQ DQG KHDOWKFDUH GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ /$*XLQGR >HW DO @ &RVW (IIHFW 5HVRXUFH$OORFDWLRQ ± ± 9RO ± 3 GRL

173

*DOHRQH &DUORWWD 3DROR %UX]]L &ODXGLR-RPPL .H\ GULYHUV RI LQQRYD WLYHQHVV DSSUDLVDO IRU PHGLFLQHV WKH ,WDOLDQ H[SHULHQFH DIWHU WKH DGRS WLRQ RI WKH QHZ UDQNLQJ V\VWHP %0-2SHQ ±-DQ ± 9RO ± Ɋ H GRL EPMRSHQ

*DUFtD /HyQ )-(WKLFV LQ KHDOWK WHFKQRORJ\ DVVHVVPHQW 5HYLHZ - +HDOWKF4XDO5HV± -DQ )HE±9RO ±Ɋ± GRL M MKTU (SXE )HE 30,'*HOODG : ) .HVVHOKHLP$6$FFHOHUDWHG DSSURYDO DQG H[SHQVLYH GUXJV ± D FKDOOHQJLQJ FRPELQDWLRQ 1 (QJO-0HG ± ± 9RO

± Ɋ ±

*HQHUDWLRQ DQG HYDOXDWLRQ RI V\QWKHWLF SDWLHQW GDWD$*RQFDOYHV >HW DO @ %0& 0HG 5HV 0HWKRGRO ± 0D\ ± 9RO ± Ɋ GRL V 30,'

*OREDO KHDOWK HWKLFV DQ LQWURGXFWLRQ WR SURPLQHQW WKHRULHV DQG UHOH YDQW WRSLFV * 6WDSOHWRQ >HW DO @ *ORE +HDOWK$FWLRQ ± )HE±9RO ±Ɋ GRL JKD YH&ROOHFWLRQ 30,'

*RHW] / + 6FKRUN 1-3HUVRQDOL]HG PHGLFLQH PRWLYDWLRQ FKDO OHQJHV DQG SURJUHVV )HUWLO 6WHULO ±-XQ ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL M IHUWQVWHUW 30,'*5$'( HYLGHQFH WR GHFLVLRQ (W' IUDPHZRUN IRU FRYHUDJH GHFL VLRQV ( 3DUPHOOL >HW DO @ ,QW-7HFKQRO$VVHVV +HDOWK &DUH ±

± 9RO ± Ɋ ±

174

*URVV$5HLPEXUVHPHQW LQ &KLQD >,QWHUQHW@ >FLWHG$X JXVW @ ± 85/ ZZZ UDSV RUJ :RUN$UHD 'RZQORDG$V VHW DVS["LG

*XLGHOLQHV V\VWHPDWLF GHYHORSPHQW RI D FRPSUHKHQVLYH FKHFNOLVW IRU D VXFFHVVIXO JXLGHOLQH HQWHUSULVH +-6FK QHPDQQ >HW DO @ &0$-± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ( ±(

*XLGHOLQHV 'HYHORSPHQW 7RRO ± 85/ KWWS JGW JXLGHOLQHGHYHO RSPHQW RUJ

*XLGHOLQHV IRU :+2 *XLGHOLQHV :+2 SUDFWLFH *XLGHOLQHV 5HFRP PHQGHG 3URFHVV *OREDO 3URJUDPPH RQ (YLGHQFH IRU +HDOWK 3ROLF\ >(OHF WURQLF UHVRXUFH@ :RUOG +HDOWK 2UJDQL]DWLRQ *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQG (,3 *3( (4& ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± 85/ KWWS DSSV ZKR LQW LULV ELWVWUHDP BHQJ SGI $FFHVVHG

*XLGHOLQHV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 1HWZRUN WRZDUG LQWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGV IRU FOLQLFDO SUDFWLFH JXLGHOLQHV$4DVHHP >HW DO @$QQ ,QWHUQ 0HG ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ±

*XSWD 0$FULWLFDO DSSUDLVDO RI HYLGHQFH EDVHG PHGLFLQH VRPH HWK LFDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV-(YDO &OLQ 3UDFW ± 0D\ ± 9RO ± Ɋ GRL M [ 30,'

+DOSHUQ 6FRWW ' 7RZDUGV HYLGHQFH EDVHG ELRHWKLFV %0-± 2FW ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL EPM 30,'

175

+HDOWK 7HFKQRORJ\$VVHVVPHQW DQG ,WV$SSOLFDWLRQV LQ &KLQD >,QWHU QHW@ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6RFLHW\ IRU 3KDUPDFRHFRQRPLFV DQG 2XWFRPHV 5HVHDUFK ,6325 >FLWHG 2FWREHU @ ± 85/ KWWS SUHVV LVSRU RUJ DVLD LQGH[ SKS KHDOWK WHFKQRORJ\ DVVHVVPHQW DQG LWV DSSOLFDWLRQV LQ FKLQD

+HDOWK WHFKQRORJ\ DVVHVVPHQW LQ-DSDQ D ZRUN LQ SURJUHVV .DPDH ,VDR >HW DO @ 0HG (FRQ ±$SU ± 9RO ± Ɋ GRL (SXE -DQ 30,'

+HDOWK WHFKQRORJ\ DVVHVVPHQW LQ 3RODQG WKH &]HFK 5HSXEOLF +XQ JDU\ 5RPDQLD DQG %XOJDULD / *XODFVL >HW DO @ (XU-+HDOWK (FRQ ± ± 9RO 6XSSO ± Ɋ 6 ±6 GRL V

+HDOWK WHFKQRORJ\ DVVHVVPHQW LQWHUQDWLRQDO UHIHUHQFH SULFLQJ DQG EXGJHW FRQWURO WRROV IURP FKLQD¶V SHUVSHFWLYH ZKDW DUH WKH FXUUHQW GHYHORSPHQWV DQG IXWXUH FRQVLGHUDWLRQV" / .RK >HW DO @ 9DOXH LQ +HDOWK 5HJ ,VVXHV ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ±

+HDOWK WHFKQRORJ\ DVVHVVPHQW UHVHDUFK DQG LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ ZLWKLQ D KHDOWK UHJLRQ LQ$OEHUWD &DQDGD 5 & /HH >HW DO @ ,QW-7HFKQRO $VVHVV +HDOWK &DUH ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ±

+LJJLQV$OLVD 0$QWKRQ\ + +DUULV +HDOWK HFRQRPLF PHWKRGV FRVW PLQLPL]DWLRQ FRVW HIIHFWLYHQHVV FRVW XWLOLW\ DQG FRVW EHQHILW HYDOXD WLRQV &ULW &DUH &OLQ ± -DQ ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL M FFF

176

+LJJV * :KHUH GR LQQRYDWLYH GUXJV FRPH IURP" 'UXJ 'LVFRY 7RGD\ ± 1RY ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL M GUXGLV (SXE $XJ 30,'

+ROOH 0 :ROII 7 +HUDQW 0 7UHQGV LQ WKH &RQFHQWUDWLRQ DQG 'LV WULEXWLRQ RI +HDOWK &DUH ([SHQGLWXUHV LQ WKH 86 ± -$0$ 1HWZ2SHQ± 6HS ±9RO ±ɊH GRL MDPDQHWZRUNRSHQ 30,'

+RSSH-' 3ULRULWLVDWLRQ LQ KHDOWK FDUH ZKDW GRHV LW PHDQ" = (YLG )RUWELOG 4XDO *HVXQGKZHV ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL M ]HIT (SXE -XQ 30,'

+RZ DQG ZK\ GR FRXQWULHV GLIIHU LQ WKHLU JRYHUQDQFH DQG ILQDQFLQJ UHODWHGDGPLQLVWUDWLYHH[SHQGLWXUHLQKHDOWKFDUH"$QDQDO\VLV RI 2(&' FRXQWULHV E\ KHDOWK FDUH V\VWHP W\SRORJ\ / / +DJHQDDUV >HW DO @ ,QW-+HDOWK 3ODQQ 0DQDJH ±-DQ ± 9RO ± Ɋ H H GRL KSP (SXE 2FW 30,'

+RZ DQWLELRWLFV DUH XVHG LQ SLJ IDUPLQJ D PL[HG PHWKRGV VWXG\ RI SLJ IDUPHUV IHHG PLOOV DQG YHWHULQDULDQV LQ 7KDLODQG Ⱥ /HNDJXO >HW DO @ %0-*ORE +HDOWK ± )HE ± 9RO ± Ɋ H GRL EPMJK H&ROOHFWLRQ 30,'

+RZ FDQ KHDOWKFDUH RUJDQL]DWLRQV LPSOHPHQW SDWLHQW FHQWHUHG FDUH" ([DPLQLQJ D ODUJH VFDOH FXOWXUDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ % * %RNKRXU >HW

177

DO @ %0& +HDOWK 6HUY 5HV ± 0DU ± 9RO ± Ɋ

GRL V

+7$ LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ URDGPDS LQ FHQWUDO DQG HDVWHUQ (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV = .DOR >HW DO @ +HDOWK (FRQ ± ± 9RO 6XSSO ± Ɋ ± GRL KHF

+X-0RVVLDORV ( 3KDUPDFHXWLFDO SULFLQJ DQG UHLPEXUVHPHQW LQ &KLQD :KHQ WKH ZKROH LV OHVV WKDQ WKH VXP RI LWV SDUWV +HDOWK 3ROLF\ ± 0D\ ± 9RO ±Ɋ ± GRL M KHDOWKSRO (SXE $SU 30,'

+X[WDEOH 5LFKDUG ,YHV -RQDWKDQ 0DSSLQJ IUDPLQJ VKDSLQJ D IUDPHZRUN IRU HPSLULFDO ELRHWKLFV UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV %0& 0HGLFDO (WKLFV ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ GRL V,PSDFW RI &(',7 UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV DQ H[DPSOH RI KHDOWK WHFKQRORJ\ DVVHVVPHQW LQ D KRVSLWDO QHWZRUN ) %RGHDX /LYLQHF >HW DO @ ,QW-

7HFKQRO$VVHVV +HDOWK &DUH ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ±

,PSDFW RI &ULWLFDO ,OOQHVV ,QVXUDQFH RQ WKH %XUGHQ RI +LJK &RVW 5X UDO 5HVLGHQWV LQ &HQWUDO &KLQD$Q ,QWHUUXSWHG 7LPH 6HULHV 6WXG\ / /L >HW DO @ ,QW-(QYLURQ 5HV 3XEOLF +HDOWK ± 6HS ± 9RO ± Ɋ GRL LMHUSK

,QFUHDVLQJ WKH OHJLWLPDF\ RI WRXJK FKRLFHV LQ KHDOWKFDUH ɤHLPEXUVHPHQW DSSURDFK DQG UHVXOWV RI D FLWL]HQ IRUXP LQ 7KH 1HWK HUODQGV / %LMOPDNHUV >HW DO @ 9DOXH +HDOWK ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ±

178

,QHTXLWLHV LQ DFFHVV WR ELRORJLF DQG V\QWKHWLF '0$5'V DFURVV (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV 3ROLQD 3XWULN >HW DO @$QQ 5KHXP 'LV ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL DQQUKHXPGLV

,QWHUQDWLRQDO OHVVRQV LQ QHZ PHWKRGV IRU JUDGLQJ DQG LQWHJUDWLQJ FRVW HIIHFWLYHQHVV HYLGHQFH LQWR FOLQLFDO SUDFWLFH JXLGHOLQHV . 0$QWL RFK >HW DO @ &RVW (IIHFW 5HV$OORFDWLRQ ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ GRL V [

,QWHUQDWLRQDO VXUYH\ RQ ZLOOLQJQHVV WR SD\ :73 IRU RQH DGGLWLRQDO 4$/< JDLQHG ZKDW LV WKH WKUHVKROG RI FRVW HIIHFWLYHQHVV" 7 6KL URLZD >HW DO @ +HDOWK (FRQ ±$SU ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL KHF 30,'

,UUDWLRQDO GUXJ XVH LQ ,QGLD D SUHVFULSWLRQ VXUYH\ IURP *RD 9 3DWHO >HW DO @-RXU 3RVWJUDG 0HG ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ H

-RVKXD 3 &RKHQ DQG$ELJDLO ( )HOL[ 3HUVRQDOL]HG 0HGLFLQH¶V %RW WOHQHFN 'LDJQRVWLF 7HVW (YLGHQFH DQG 5HLPEXUVHPHQW-3HUV 0HG ±-XQ ± 9RO ±Ɋ ± 3XEOLVKHG RQOLQH$SU GRL MSP

.DSLULUL/5D]DYL'+RZKD YHV\VWHPDWLFSULRULW\VHWWLQJDS SURDFKHV LQIOXHQFHG SROLF\ PDNLQJ"$V\QWKHVLV RI WKH FXUUHQW OLW HUDWXUH +HDOWK 3ROLF\ ± ±9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL M KHDOWKSRO

.DW]HURYi 0DQDJHG HQWU\ DJUHHPHQWV LQ WKH &]HFK 5HSXEOLF ± KLJKO\ LQQRYDWLYH PHGLFLQHV 3UHVHQWDWLRQ DW WKH (8 PHHWLQJ RQ 0($V LQ 5RPH

179

.HHQH\ 5 / 5DLIID + 'HFLVLRQV ZLWK PXOWLSOH REMHFWLYHV SUHIHU HQFHVDQGYDOXHWUDGH RIIV±&DPEULGJH8QLWHG.LQJGRP&DP EULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV

.HVLN %URGDFND 0 3URJUHVV LQ ELRSKDUPDFHXWLFDO GHYHORSPHQW %LRWHFKQRO$SSO %LRFKHP ± 0D\ ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL EDE (SXE 1RY 30,'

.HVVHOKHLP$6 :DQJ %$YRUQ-'HILQLQJ LQQRYDWLYHQHVV LQ GUXJ GHYHORSPHQW D V\VWHPDWLF UHYLHZ &OLQ 3KDUPDFRO 7KHU ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ±

.H\VHUOLQJN ( : /DZ ELRHWKLFV DQG ELRPHGLFLQH WRZDUGV D KHDOWKLHU LQWHUDFWLRQ 0F*LOO /DZ-± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± 30,'

.KXOODU 'KUXY 5DLQX .DXVKDO ³3UHFLVLRQ +HDOWK´ IRU +LJK 1HHG +LJK &RVW 3DWLHQWV 7KH$PHULFDQ-RXUQDO RI 0DQDJHG &DUH± 6HSWHPEHU ± 9RO ,VVXH

.LGR . 0DWVXPDUX 1 7VXNDPRWR . +HDOWK 7HFKQRORJ\$VVHVVPHQW LQ-DSDQ$3KDUPDFHXWLFDO ,QGXVWU\ 3HUVSHFWLYH 7KHU ,QQRY 5HJXO 6FL ± -XO ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL (SXE $XJ 30,'

.RODVD . =DK 9 .RZDOF]\N 0 +RZ FDQ PXOWL FULWHULD GHFLVLRQ DQDO\VLV VXSSRUW YDOXH DVVHVVPHQW RI SKDUPDFHXWLFDOV" )LQGLQJV IURP D V\VWHPDWLF OLWHUDWXUH UHYLHZ ([SHUW 5HY 3KDUPDFR 2XW FRPHV 5HV ± ± 9RO ± Ɋ ± GRL

180